Us Politics · resolved market
Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf68cea93b8262e6e5778dc4ed8623baf288487d371ff418ed09383b98bbb6f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 70c | 1,896$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.17 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 58c | 352.87$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.21 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 72c | 276$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 60c | 226.72$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 58c | 226.63$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 153$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.63 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 68c | 136.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.57 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.06 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 66c | 95.37$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 54c | 66.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec0…634ebacked Yes | 51c | 64.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23a…4d77backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 43c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 52c | 50.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 31c | 32.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 55c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…51babacked No | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…f9a0backed Yes | 59c | 21.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649c…ebabbacked Yes | 59c | 21.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…a960backed Yes | 59c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c37…1e02backed Yes | 59c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…7b55backed Yes | 59c | 17.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? this page
- Less than 50 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
- Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
- Will 56 or more Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.