Us Politics · resolved market
Less than 50 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f28d918d9e6a9bde2dcadd5df6f4f6cbe9a79a6d92a082131f48bde5fb9788d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd847…6103backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 2c | 6,453$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.2 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 6c | 2,063$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,905$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.15 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed Yes | 5c | 1,709$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,208$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 953.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 177 | 13%23 W · 154 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…f871backed Yes | 5c | 493.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 469.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 8c | 400.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 3c | 334$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 7c | 333.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 10cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 6c | 241.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 17c | 205.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 192.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 8c | 179.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 159.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Less than 50 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? this page
- Will 50-52 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? Yes won
- Will 53-55 Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
- Will 56 or more Senators vote to confirm Hegseth? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.