Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70cb9ebc03463088e222a1cbcfb75e6fdea14edc78bb7f4bb2fc2f5548151ccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $320,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $187,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $320,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 6c | 36,000$2,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.99 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 15,401$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.56 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…1580backed Yes | 0c | 9,995$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 3c | 7,093$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 4,504$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 4,303$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,028$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed Yes | 10c | 3,754$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 1c | 3,621$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 1c | 2,877$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 3c | 2,770$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 3c | 2,685$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,398$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.02 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…3b3fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,312$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.26 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 4c | 2,300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 2,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…3dd4backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,522$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,357$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 2c | 1,341$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 1c | 1,177$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…d7a7backed Yes | 3c | 1,113$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 75 | 16%12 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 1,110$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,077$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…e767backed Yes | 7c | 1,030$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…196dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 1c | 999.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 4c | 989.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 5c | 966.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 2c | 884.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ed…09cebacked Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…28a8backed Yes | 6c | 800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 3c | 775.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 745.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 722.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 5c | 624.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde82…95a7backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebd…4671backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…fc76backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 8cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 502.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d53…398bbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2169…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 499.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 3c | 399.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 9c | 398.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 6c | 356.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x353f…3b8dbacked Yes | 3c | 355.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x078a…d3edbacked Yes | 10c | 313.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…58cabacked Yes | 3c | 299.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb707…d4a4backed Yes | 5c | 267.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 7c | 265$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a95…4a2bbacked Yes | 5c | 251$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…460abacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 10c | 248.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 9c | 224.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…1a68backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +514.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…db01backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…d1fdbacked Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…4cafbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.