Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8846491e4b7442c87a64ee3aef2d6ef2b1725eb1ab68003f5265520b5deab1b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $641,353
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $435,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,353 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 39,032$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.68 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 15c | 25,383$3,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,848.63 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 10c | 17,842$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.09 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 11,205$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.02 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbabe…fe97backed Yes | 0c | 10,008$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…b274backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 7,941$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.42 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 16c | 7,159$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.12 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 11c | 6,576$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.89 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 11c | 6,055$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.97 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 5,835$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.19 | 852 | 16.4%140 W · 712 L | +24.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 19c | 5,583$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.32 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 15c | 5,500$815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$815.11 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 16c | 5,484$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.23 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 27c | 4,442$1,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.28 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,243$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.47 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 16c | 4,134$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.09 | 147 | 15.6%23 W · 124 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 16c | 4,088$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.85 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,810$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.36 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 10c | 3,669$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.97 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 12c | 3,430$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.36 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 18c | 3,319$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 10c | 3,131$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.06 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 2c | 3,100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 14c | 3,073$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 16c | 3,044$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.66 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 17c | 2,961$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.4 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 23c | 2,929$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.5 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 17c | 2,845$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 18c | 2,601$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 4c | 2,470$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 570 | 17.4%99 W · 471 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 19c | 2,420$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed Yes | 7c | 2,371$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60d…8887backed Yes | 24c | 2,332$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.78 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,317$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 14c | 2,100$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,089$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 21c | 2,043$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.22 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,003$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…b42fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,899$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 8c | 1,800$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,739$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.42 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 12c | 1,737$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.07 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 16c | 1,727$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.94 | 658 | 23.3%153 W · 505 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 19c | 1,602$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 31c | 1,563$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.4 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 17c | 1,562$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.42 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 9c | 1,545$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 831 | 14.9%124 W · 707 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,480$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.29 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 15c | 1,415$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.73 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3c…5467backed Yes | 18c | 1,389$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.8 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 15c | 1,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 9c | 1,295$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.34 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…ed4abacked Yes | 22c | 1,284$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 31c | 1,281$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.47 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b14…2a35backed Yes | 20c | 1,251$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 14c | 1,234$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 17c | 1,228$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…43a5backed Yes | 17c | 1,184$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,133$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 15c | 1,105$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.55 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…f3a5backed Yes | 15c | 1,100$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…c3d7backed Yes | 14c | 1,100$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,088$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.67 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 1,082$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.15 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 13c | 1,078$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 1,068$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 22c | 1,058$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 20c | 1,014$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 31c | 1,007$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.68 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed Yes | 25c | 995.6$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…07eebacked Yes | 19c | 974.84$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 26c | 957.54$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 14c | 955.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…7423backed Yes | 23c | 936.72$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 21c | 935.18$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 13c | 899.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 26c | 890.57$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 12c | 875.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 20c | 875.13$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.86 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 17c | 858.41$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.93 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 13c | 849.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…a066backed Yes | 23c | 835.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 12c | 779.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…8afebacked Yes | 13c | 774.16$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb707…d4a4backed Yes | 13c | 755.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…31efbacked Yes | 7c | 750$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…7630backed Yes | 16c | 738.86$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 17c | 726.93$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 10c | 718.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 15c | 702.82$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…f9f3backed Yes | 31c | 700$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 13c | 700$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11e…ff89backed Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…8757backed Yes | 28c | 651.81$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc49…aa14backed Yes | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.