Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2603fbe8c54dd4743571210cf413367c5d986327bab557d3feb481fa44479737
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $756,469
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $601,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $756,469 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 526 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Yes | 2c | 32,089$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.32 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 19c | 25,841$5,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,016.74 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed No | 73c | 23,259$16,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,330.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 22,687$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630.01 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 13c | 18,166$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.39 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 24c | 17,518$4,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,279.04 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 3c | 17,396$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.02 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 18c | 14,244$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.15 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 18c | 11,901$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.63 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 30c | 10,809$3,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,191.13 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 10,444$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.78 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…6a86backed Yes | 0c | 10,006$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 5c | 8,755$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.34 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked No | 79c | 8,249$6,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.6 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 21c | 7,191$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.61 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 31c | 6,457$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.42 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…07eebacked Yes | 44c | 5,636$2,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,495.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 5,372$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.64 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 21c | 5,266$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.62 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 24c | 5,000$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.68 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 12c | 4,714$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.61 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 34c | 4,601$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.72 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 17c | 4,502$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.87 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…43a5backed Yes | 54c | 4,215$2,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,293.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 65c | 4,122$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.82 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…a216backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6090…a2a9backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 37c | 3,938$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.83 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 20c | 3,783$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.27 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 42c | 3,702$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 14c | 3,520$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.86 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,486$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.94 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 3,405$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.02 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 35c | 3,315$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.13 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 74c | 3,241$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.68 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 37c | 3,212$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.11 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 50c | 3,088$1,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.51 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 12c | 3,049$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 25c | 3,039$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.56 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7caa…8872backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 18c | 2,940$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.19 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Yes | 12c | 2,882$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.59 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 37c | 2,807$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.52 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 21c | 2,757$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.12 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…05cebacked Yes | 2c | 2,755$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fb…ca7abacked Yes | 2c | 2,727$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 2,700$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 51c | 2,649$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 20c | 2,639$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.85 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 28c | 2,581$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.53 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 21c | 2,489$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 54c | 2,458$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 23c | 2,374$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.25 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 2,355$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…c5d0backed Yes | 40c | 2,228$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 7c | 2,182$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 33c | 2,150$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.47 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 27c | 2,068$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.49 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 16c | 1,910$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.67 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ec…14b2backed Yes | 53c | 1,836$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 40c | 1,680$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.61 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 36c | 1,633$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.02 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…c6ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,628$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 28c | 1,627$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.65 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…7630backed Yes | 12c | 1,623$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 27c | 1,607$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.99 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked No | 79c | 1,594$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.12 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…ed4abacked Yes | 2c | 1,568$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,544$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 21c | 1,540$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.48 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 12c | 1,466$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.81 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 23c | 1,456$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.14 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…3359backed Yes | 1c | 1,430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…729dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,393$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,324$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.84 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb068…2e33backed Yes | 17c | 1,202$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 30c | 1,172$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.9 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 53c | 1,156$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.56 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 30c | 1,148$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 75c | 1,121$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…d911backed Yes | 14c | 1,115$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…6713backed Yes | 20c | 1,115$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…37f0backed Yes | 16c | 1,110$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked No | 67c | 1,099$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked No | 62c | 1,091$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.59 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 24c | 1,085$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.93 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 26c | 1,082$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,082$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 28c | 1,082$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.5 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2086…510ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,059$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0b…2341backed No | 76c | 1,050$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.52 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…b42fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,027$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…7389backed Yes | 19c | 1,021$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbae…69c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf982…1c15backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.