Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf370a981fbed69834b37f0642a8fb22af99573c3ff2549667eadd18d0a14847d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $721,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $450,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $721,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 343 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00b1…3e18backed Yes | 0c | 50,633$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 8c | 38,420$3,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,072.69 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 30,942$2,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,068.34 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 9c | 18,000$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.99 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 16c | 14,530$2,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,284.65 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 28c | 12,545$3,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,477.88 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 23c | 11,764$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,742.85 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 9,793$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.6 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 5c | 8,620$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 14c | 7,837$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.49 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 35c | 6,956$2,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,452.32 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 25c | 6,776$1,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702.62 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 2c | 6,676$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,662$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 14c | 6,056$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.99 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 5,402$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.79 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 14c | 5,394$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.49 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 15c | 4,730$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.41 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed No | 76c | 4,727$3,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.28 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…f9f3backed Yes | 0c | 4,688$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8498…d219backed Yes | 16c | 4,599$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…7b01backed Yes | 1c | 4,561$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 4,135$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 24c | 4,087$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.32 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 6c | 4,010$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.37 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…844bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,910$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 24c | 3,598$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.3 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…a252backed Yes | 1c | 3,567$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 15c | 3,500$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf407…10f7backed Yes | 37c | 3,488$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.12 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 8c | 3,291$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.94 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 20c | 3,231$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.78 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 18c | 3,080$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.94 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 6c | 3,026$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.97 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,923$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.55 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 2,921$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.17 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 3c | 2,892$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 8c | 2,643$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.77 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 20c | 2,582$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.73 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…07eebacked Yes | 23c | 2,500$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 18c | 2,431$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.56 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 26c | 2,416$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 26c | 2,286$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.75 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 15c | 2,175$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.98 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 10c | 2,078$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.9 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,048$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.71 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 26c | 1,979$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.26 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…12e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,967$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 74c | 1,943$1,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 26c | 1,926$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 31c | 1,913$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,888$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 12c | 1,837$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 18c | 1,835$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.73 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…2aebbacked Yes | 14c | 1,787$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…9f94backed Yes | 2c | 1,738$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,689$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.14 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…72a1backed Yes | 7c | 1,680$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 26c | 1,644$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451c…2856backed Yes | 24c | 1,639$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,566$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.83 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…0e15backed Yes | 21c | 1,544$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.18 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 25c | 1,517$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 18c | 1,506$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.53 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 10c | 1,486$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…437dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,476$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…3b3fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,462$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6b…d279backed No | 80c | 1,422$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 78cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 76c | 1,405$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.15 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 24c | 1,393$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.37 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 26c | 1,378$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.02 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,349$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.21 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…bd3cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,305$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 13c | 1,281$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…f62cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,246$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.59 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17c7…7423backed Yes | 14c | 1,227$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7060…29a7backed Yes | 30c | 1,159$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 19c | 1,120$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb039…010fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,113$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed No | 73c | 1,095$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 10c | 1,079$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 15c | 1,077$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.37 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7079…a828backed Yes | 28c | 1,072$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 3c | 1,065$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…085ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,062$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…4056backed Yes | 1c | 1,047$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 8c | 1,027$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 30c | 1,019$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfd…0fcfbacked Yes | 32c | 1,009$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 4c | 999.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…f23abacked Yes | 10c | 995.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 24c | 995.57$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…70dcbacked Yes | 17c | 991.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.73 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed Yes | 32c | 974.17$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes | 33c | 919.1$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.93 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 916.27$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 16c | 904.08$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.