Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x011892d762e147bf3b437c7958596b88326e8be6f34f7594af4c4205f395b9d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $605,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $626,603
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $605,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 11c | 20,075$2,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,289.98 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed Yes | 74c | 18,833$14,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,819.26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 59c | 16,917$9,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,942.18 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 24c | 16,697$3,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,705.23 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 4c | 16,208$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.89 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 67c | 13,118$8,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,319.93 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 11c | 11,060$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,793.36 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked No | 52c | 9,824$5,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,090.1 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 9,159$1,941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,218.73 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…2595backed Yes | 76c | 7,203$5,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 18c | 5,564$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,547.85 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 38c | 5,317$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,313.13 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…a126backed Yes | 10c | 5,117$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,608.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,491.03 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9229…a966backed No | 0c | 4,381$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes | 48c | 4,330$2,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,268.9 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Yes | 47c | 4,169$1,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.19 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked Yes | 40c | 4,005$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.7 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee9…6cc6backed No | 5c | 3,743$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 3,504$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,971.35 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 63c | 3,309$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0e…6a86backed Yes | 26c | 3,037$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,232.29 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 29c | 2,901$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.48 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,764$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.83 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…f9a9backed Yes | 76c | 2,628$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 32c | 2,417$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.77 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…8b8dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,976$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.58 | 90 | 14.4%13 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 29c | 1,933$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.92 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 74c | 1,908$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.73 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed Yes | 14c | 1,719$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377e…a9d3backed Yes | 63c | 1,610$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.24 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 61c | 1,549$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.33 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 29c | 1,548$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.3 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4256…b85ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,456$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed Yes | 65c | 1,452$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 30c | 1,441$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.87 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…fbebbacked Yes | 14c | 1,432$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.4 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,423$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.03 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Yes | 42c | 1,421$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.36 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 13c | 1,324$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.5 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 76c | 1,321$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.03 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 40c | 1,294$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.12 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,253$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 26c | 1,240$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.61 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 50c | 1,234$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.75 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fc…18a6backed Yes | 20c | 1,226$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.7 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,216$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.82 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 44c | 1,145$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.31 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,090$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.67 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…07eebacked Yes | 28c | 1,088$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8608…7b5cbacked Yes | 70c | 1,070$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b9…98ffbacked Yes | 44c | 1,043$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.45 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…03c2backed Yes | 68c | 1,029$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.82 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…ed4abacked Yes | 29c | 1,028$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99e7…5d19backed Yes | 30c | 1,015$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.43 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 39c | 995.73$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 55c | 959.87$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.32 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…43e8backed Yes | 57c | 948.68$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.93 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 34c | 948.33$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 48c | 934.59$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 67c | 926.1$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.38 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 9c | 899.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.49 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 39c | 892.1$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.1 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 11c | 886.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 37c | 878.03$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.58 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd216…d911backed Yes | 20c | 865$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 855.74$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 66c | 850$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.5 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…2cb0backed Yes | 49c | 842.45$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.56 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 41c | 831.81$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.12 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…74c6backed Yes | 22c | 830.21$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.47 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…27c9backed No | 60c | 827.38$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed No | 9c | 819.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dc…b2a9backed Yes | 9c | 800$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.5 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…7ba8backed Yes | 11c | 799.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.99 | 155 | 11.6%18 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 43c | 779.76$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.9 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.23 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x761a…0e8ebacked No | 44c | 729.41$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 26c | 727.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.5 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 16c | 721.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.74 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 19c | 718.25$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.78 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…3d27backed Yes | 33c | 713.21$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.96 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 68c | 709.99$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.98 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…980bbacked Yes | 30c | 706.97$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed Yes | 68c | 705.08$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.58 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…c561backed Yes | 18c | 700$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.41 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 59c | 688.64$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 681.57$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.03 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 42c | 656.33$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.11 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0973…8986backed Yes | 34c | 653.73$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.5 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe679…f0e0backed Yes | 23c | 653$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.4 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 48c | 642.67$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 12c | 633.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.62 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…bd3cbacked Yes | 28c | 621.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6c…a1c5backed Yes | 33c | 602.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.9 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 12c | 599.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.49 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 63c | 599.55$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…c119backed Yes | 29c | 592.19$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 14-21?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1000 or more times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 700-749 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 900-949 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet 950-999 times Feb 14-21?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 500 times Feb 14-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.