TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump create External Revenue Service in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,037 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea3e…b956backed No38c3,717$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,317.848843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed No43c3,665$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.29746.4%45 W · 52 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+63.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes65c3,104$2,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,015.741353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No72c3,064$2,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.7110056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes28c2,179$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6004332.6%14 W · 29 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed No42c1,735$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.253253.1%17 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes44c1,698$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.063441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46af…23cdbacked Yes59c1,687$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No22c1,527$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.9714241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes80c1,348$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,077.5616943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes72c1,191$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.5341238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x020b…d13cbacked No73c1,076$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.791283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes58c1,052$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.871711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-62.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed No48c1,011$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.837420.3%15 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No28c1,000$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$715.544351.2%22 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed Yes45c798.56$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.956625.8%17 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes15c544.21$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8616854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No12c540.13$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.317740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes38c531$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.492832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes49c512.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.953312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74b5…e2ffbacked No61c454.33$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.543151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No53c450$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes44c430.67$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.6319435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed No22c409.09$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.091752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes38c401.44$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe9b2…447ebacked No41c400$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No39c386.56$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.628547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef43…7b62backed Yes19c383$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.77296.9%2 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick21cpaid-58.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes21c366.29$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.752556%14 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No45c354.7$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes10c346.63$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.972847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2d…dde5backed No53c340$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1601464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ac…a261backed Yes50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+82.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32c1…e1e3backed No20c250$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes16c250$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.54936.7%18 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No74c243.99$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.66251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xced2…1076backed No38c236.84$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.842360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad4f…12a3backed Yes27c225.86$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602119%4 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid+15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes43c225.48$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3123543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed Yes25c215$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.753438.2%13 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid+21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db5…3167backed Yes50c206.06$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9c…e90cbacked No61c203.26$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed No72c200$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes60c199.61$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7715238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes28c189.17$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.546031.7%19 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed Yes36c180$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652025%5 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No56c179.99$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.415924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09b6…795fbacked No60c170.95$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7656…5ab4backed Yes62c167.42$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.211346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8356…7ad1backed Yes61c165.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7313…cbbcbacked Yes47c150$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.22955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cdf…c324backed Yes69c144.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-59.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3d6b…3617backed Yes64c134.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c128.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8839522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No48c123.33$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.633161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x231c…935ebacked Yes61c114.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecea…de43backed Yes43c112.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507d…728dbacked No36c112.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.931145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+83.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No56c111.44$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0828636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes40c110$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448847.7%42 W · 46 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+32.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No61c109.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9511940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa740…e0e6backed Yes36c106.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6714742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2325241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595343.4%23 W · 30 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc550…272dbacked No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503959%23 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66c1…fa3fbacked No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4513145.8%60 W · 71 L+8.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes31c99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.55862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No17c96.76$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3115124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Yes63c96.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.438377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c85.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Yes68c83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.447447.3%35 W · 39 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No20c81$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5618914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cf5…5ca2backed Yes59c74$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.661136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-51.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x210a…d04ebacked Yes68c74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.121450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes56c73.33$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.034734%16 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes72c71.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522615.4%4 W · 22 L-6.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-78.4%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes48c71.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.656733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3030…16bbbacked Yes14c70$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No28c69.7$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.418741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196065%39 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad1…01cdbacked Yes68c57.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb1f…512abacked Yes73c54.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09e2…45a9backed Yes64c54.69$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-58.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes37c50.95$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.858737.9%33 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.757562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked No59c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.73100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed No28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes78c49$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.99944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.25per pick69cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x53e6…becabacked Yes69c45$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3585…1595backed No44c44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.642951.7%15 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60d1…f176backed No24c44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.442100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+187.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed No61c41.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.317051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0d3…b187backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes51c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No64c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.64386%37 W · 6 L+8.4wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+29.5%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x617a…bad1backed No66c38.86$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.211963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0921…8634backed Yes56c35.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.