TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$144,482
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,482 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf0…0245backed No5c4,629$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.773438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No5c4,028$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.158632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No5c3,737$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.583859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No8c3,308$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.8496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked No11c2,710$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.863727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No6c1,992$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.843721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No17c1,992$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7b2…7c50backed No25c1,822$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.1425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x283f…e198backed No12c1,759$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked No12c1,689$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No5c1,681$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.854634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No12c1,611$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8611541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No4c1,564$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5628320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked No12c1,522$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.432343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No14c1,466$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.6412649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7c4…c5abbacked No3c1,384$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No16c1,247$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.1911347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe45e…ebb0backed No18c1,111$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No11c1,111$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.213748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc3…de08backed No20c1,110$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No4c1,050$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.74314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x830d…3f0ebacked No13c1,024$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13070%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed No13c1,007$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.911838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed No8c1,006$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.571414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No2c1,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No4c1,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355928.8%17 W · 42 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+80.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c32…cdcebacked No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4759…ec88backed No21c995.51$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21090%0 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No4c899.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7710324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c1…1b90backed No15c800$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick21cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed No12c706$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.726432.8%21 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No11c696.52$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.6241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No4c683.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x54db…5a9bbacked No13c680.77$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No15c649.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No15c499.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x138d…4bc0backed Yes79c480$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick46cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No6c454$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.68185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-89.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No9c442.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0910211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No12c420$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.811031.8%35 W · 75 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed No10c410.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.512356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+78.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbbea…3f8dbacked No5c410$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1301…da6abacked No6c406.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.55911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7019…61ddbacked No24c404$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.02742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+71.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed No16c401.84$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.487014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed No14c395.49$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb49…750ebacked No5c374.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2328…5adabacked No10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2229.1%2 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed No12c350$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.63823.7%9 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No12c316.83$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.553125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No24c305.49$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.519958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1310324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5cf…c503backed No14c278.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked No4c274.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.546728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53d9…a749backed No18c274.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…756ebacked No15c263.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed No7c253.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.793414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No17c250.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.421,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked No5c250$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.753246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+67.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed No17c235.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No11c230$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.37825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bd1…acadbacked No10c211.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No14c211$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8717713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked Yes72c208.71$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.547834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b26…488bbacked No6c202.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick11cpaid+64.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55b8…1f22backed No14c202.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No14c200.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.029829.6%29 W · 69 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9187…cdb4backed No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed No18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362737%10 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb984…2a41backed No6c199.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112035%7 W · 13 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick19cpaid+108.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No26c192.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.055230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes61c190.97$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.489142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc2a…fd6dbacked No11c189.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.682020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…57b4backed No13c188$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked No27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No14c179.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51d7…c725backed No14c178.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252020%4 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No32c157.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed No16c156.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2590%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No7c152.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b6…1f27backed No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x686a…966bbacked No16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.533450%17 W · 17 L+7.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+123.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed No14c145.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa845…2307backed No14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No11c132.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.273818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81d…482dbacked No8c126.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cbc…5196backed No11c118.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb1…b398backed No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No10c114$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.46137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No16c112.69$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.037041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5217…1930backed No18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked No14c110.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156031.7%19 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No17c104.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3717021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No16c101$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.683925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112450%12 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+99.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.56124.6%15 W · 46 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-24.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x095f…41b7backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed No16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e60…5f95backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171729.4%5 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.