Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc2cfa101ff18bd886edae9b49d7e8fbfac29d293ef51ac5846920754da736d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 7c | 12,823$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.64 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 8c | 5,448$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.23 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 5c | 5,072$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.71 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 3c | 3,961$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.23 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 5c | 3,216$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.09 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…b2f8backed No | 5c | 2,461$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 1,643$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 1,453$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.57 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 9c | 1,345$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked No | 4c | 1,010$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 5c | 998.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 11c | 957$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 11c | 946.75$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c32…cdcebacked No | 10c | 811.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked No | 2c | 803.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 8c | 725.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed No | 5c | 627.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 589.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…75b9backed No | 3c | 560$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed No | 13c | 556$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed No | 4c | 530.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 8c | 490$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 11c | 480.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd1…acadbacked No | 5c | 444.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 8c | 390$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…2687backed No | 3c | 378.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…5d1ebacked No | 15c | 341.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 33c | 333.56$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.41 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 15c | 326.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3b…7edcbacked No | 3c | 297.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 15c | 294.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 9c | 287.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 102 | 11.8%12 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed No | 4c | 280.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed No | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…ce35backed No | 4c | 250.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…d16fbacked No | 13c | 231$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 22c | 230.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 14c | 230.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 12c | 228$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…2307backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3d…e107backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe914…1707backed No | 13c | 199.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 13c | 199.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 199$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 8c | 181$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed No | 9c | 178.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2328…5adabacked No | 12c | 161.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 32c | 156.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed No | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee63…07a4backed Yes | 64c | 141.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 27c | 141$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 13c | 126.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 26c | 122.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 12c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…dd4cbacked No | 15c | 106.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked No | 32c | 100.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…63f1backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd430…4847backed No | 15c | 84.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed No | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 34c | 66.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…871fbacked No | 15c | 65.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…d0e2backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 58c | 39.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?this page
- Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Brad Garlinghouse attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Chris Christie attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jair Bolsonaro attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nayib Bukele attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Stephen Baldwin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.