Us Politics · resolved market
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6857c448780d91ff1b6ea300619daaa87b69ffc3b454730dbb54d8a3911dffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $291,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $282,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 65c | 14,931$9,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,288.81 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 17c | 12,049$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,028.17 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 9,197$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe878…2143backed Yes | 69c | 7,138$4,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,919.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 16c | 5,544$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,664.42 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 16c | 5,411$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,522.54 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…75c6backed Yes | 3c | 5,064$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 21.6%24 W · 87 L | +11.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +179.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 3c | 4,519$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…07bebacked No | 39c | 3,831$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…a2b2backed No | 76c | 3,675$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.75 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 3,481$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 75c | 3,419$2,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,552.71 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,142$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 80c | 2,981$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.44 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked No | 31c | 2,865$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 77c | 2,704$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,070 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 6c | 2,666$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.96 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 79c | 2,400$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,887 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…96e7backed Yes | 65c | 2,359$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 284 | 7.7%22 W · 262 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed No | 25c | 2,267$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed No | 19c | 2,252$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,825.6 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked Yes | 3c | 2,239$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…f628backed Yes | 5c | 2,169$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 71c | 1,822$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ea31backed Yes | 3c | 1,731$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked No | 29c | 1,678$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.82 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -58%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 13c | 1,674$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.23 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 36c | 1,661$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.17 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 29c | 1,575$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.89 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 29c | 1,571$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.8 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked No | 19c | 1,520$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7734…ff65backed No | 18c | 1,510$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked No | 19c | 1,499$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 14c | 1,492$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.35 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 25c | 1,470$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…e55abacked Yes | 1c | 1,403$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed No | 8c | 1,281$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…8556backed Yes | 4c | 1,253$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…b890backed Yes | 3c | 1,169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 39c | 1,167$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.97 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 11c | 1,111$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.79 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 1,072$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.9 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 25c | 1,060$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.07 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 4c | 1,033$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…ebb0backed No | 19c | 1,030$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 3c | 1,029$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f77…a9a9backed No | 16c | 1,025$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…6c30backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…4e30backed No | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 13c | 983.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855.85 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 20c | 935.61$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed Yes | 3c | 871.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 79c | 819.55$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed Yes | 76c | 782.7$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 22c | 760$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.93 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 69c | 750$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…d98bbacked Yes | 3c | 742.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 31c | 733.98$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.36 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe721…cd95backed Yes | 2c | 719.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…82e2backed Yes | 4c | 715.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 30c | 707.75$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.84 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 68c | 700$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 26c | 690$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.6 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked No | 9c | 688.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.35 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 3c | 666.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b6afbacked Yes | 3c | 638.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 4c | 628.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 19c | 604$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.95 | 113 | 47.8%54 W · 59 L | +10.8wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…adedbacked No | 34c | 591.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…19e4backed Yes | 3c | 539.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb984…2a41backed Yes | 2c | 531.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 19cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…5606backed Yes | 3c | 528.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 500.01$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.06 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…46d6backed No | 23c | 496$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.28 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 26c | 485.52$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.91 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 29c | 437.13$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.43 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 2c | 421.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 31c | 404.73$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.78 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 67c | 400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…482dbacked Yes | 4c | 384.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x618d…9599backed Yes | 4c | 384.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…f0bebacked Yes | 3c | 381.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 66c | 377.74$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.16 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 361.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.05 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed No | 19c | 359$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa47e…5d1ebacked No | 21c | 354.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2378…a059backed Yes | 78c | 354.16$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -36%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4a30…be4ebacked Yes | 77c | 352.1$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 16c | 350$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 30c | 333$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ae…8e54backed No | 13c | 325.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 19c | 321.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.83 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…b2c6backed No | 15c | 304$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?this page
- Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Brad Garlinghouse attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Chris Christie attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jair Bolsonaro attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nayib Bukele attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Stephen Baldwin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.