TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$495,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $495,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2282…1051backed Yes0c127,101$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.911233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+67.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes0c25,283$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966634.8%23 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes0c25,270$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.92323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3371…5871backed Yes1c23,221$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2190%0 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ea…f801backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes0c17,940$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes1c10,766$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.484522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e35…ec6bbacked Yes31c10,125$3,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,118.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes4c10,098$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.653859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes23c9,808$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.03955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes28c8,624$2,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,422.081741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes0c8,446$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.652524%6 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes0c8,045$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed No78c6,764$5,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.45149%25 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+28.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No8c6,205$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,734.784314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2326…ab0ebacked No72c5,364$3,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff63…a2f8backed Yes1c5,155$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.673073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0cc9…8ce4backed Yes0c5,080$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes3c5,060$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.062814.3%4 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-76.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x607f…a0b1backed Yes3c3,618$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e3…ca28backed Yes2c3,357$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Yes2c3,151$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.622015%3 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xed23…9930backed Yes5c2,473$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed No40c2,390$963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.943050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked No17c2,313$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,925.553129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1953…5607backed Yes10c2,130$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes57c2,000$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1358134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No17c1,643$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.2814940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No66c1,625$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.077146.5%33 W · 38 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+84.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x51c9…e4a8backed No7c1,494$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid+137.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No75c1,207$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.56229%18 W · 44 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe766…4580backed Yes68c1,173$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed Yes46c1,171$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.12330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes61c1,094$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.792934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95f6…d035backed Yes9c1,073$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02b5…ab51backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1301…da6abacked No5c1,000$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes59c837.08$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.55425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-68.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes60c821.36$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.0430%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No8c788.18$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.1811646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked No31c763.34$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.394634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e71…81d1backed Yes25c730.51$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked No17c687.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.584820.8%10 W · 38 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e62…927abacked Yes2c655.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No5c630$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.318914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c624.01$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.3896319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x44af…c7ddbacked Yes12c553.55$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No28c550.94$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.016041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc6e…3e46backed Yes40c497.71$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No13c478.86$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.5115332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef0…0213backed No27c411.6$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.462250%11 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes79c366.32$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.577838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3764…81a2backed Yes9c335.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8e…def0backed Yes16c326.59$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd834…65d2backed No8c322$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.282626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes59c304.75$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.456728.4%19 W · 48 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Yes59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88e4…8f34backed No5c300$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.7922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+142.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed No29c276.62$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.324928.6%14 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No61c275.64$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.718142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked No63c255$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.38640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba1…2af6backed Yes16c251.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cc…4f3abacked No5c250$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.253246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+67.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No24c235.68$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3530319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ed0…679cbacked Yes9c235.1$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb2…d586backed No8c227.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,164.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes63c203.52$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2216535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x11b8…435fbacked Yes46c200.87$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes29c200$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5818033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14220446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x739e…00fcbacked Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3f…b61cbacked No35c199.98$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No28c181$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.6628320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133b…2f22backed No7c180.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.514247.6%20 W · 22 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+68.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed No12c161.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.291816.7%3 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-35.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No14c143.44$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.751,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No26c135.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.422326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No18c122.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.4215924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74a2…8a37backed No19c102.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+414.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No48c98.97$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0923149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No39c93.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.117713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No26c88.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.819944.4%44 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes78c85.13$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.582154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No40c81.01$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3811538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xddb1…01acbacked No20c80$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x87d0…57c5backed Yes70c80$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c4…d657backed Yes20c70.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No79c65.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6712736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No27c65.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.742231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2a6…fd3ebacked Yes78c54.78$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x664b…8509backed No21c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes76c45.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Yes70c45.68$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.018377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff22…4b18backed Yes50c40.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…0669backed No29c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.551637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc5…0c52backed Yes73c34.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02c0…05b5backed Yes65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202931%9 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes52c30.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.824339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.