Us Politics · resolved market
Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x007ae2dd1aeb450b64bdc6f26520513a0809e7cb58d37044fcb41527f2b16363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 2c | 1,153$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked No | 20c | 1,001$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 13c | 671.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 10c | 626.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed No | 10c | 544.94$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd5…5542backed No | 9c | 541.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 17c | 301.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 296.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7329…6768backed No | 6c | 272.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…83efbacked No | 12c | 261.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…9831backed Yes | 79c | 253.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 7c | 251$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…564cbacked No | 7c | 210$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…ac2ebacked No | 10c | 199.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…bb03backed No | 9c | 180$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 18c | 102.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 60c | 82.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 76c | 46.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sam Altman attend presidential inauguration?this page
- Will Giorgia Meloni attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Barack Obama attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Bill Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Brad Garlinghouse attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Caitlyn Jenner attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Chris Christie attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will George W. Bush attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jair Bolsonaro attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Javier Milei attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Joe Rogan attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Kamala Harris attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Nayib Bukele attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Rudy Giuliani attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Shou Chew attend presidential inauguration?Yes won
- Will Stephen Baldwin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Tom Brady attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Viktor Orban attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Volodymyr Zelensky attend presidential inauguration?No won
- Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.