TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,476 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51c9…e4a8backed No1c5,197$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid+137.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1028320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No2c979.55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5911646.6%54 W · 62 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No15c800$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.747331.5%23 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No29c575.91$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.789533.7%32 W · 63 L-0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes35c474.79$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.947838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No67c470.49$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1318033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked No6c438$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.371233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b69…e32abacked No38c400.64$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.843432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes33c371.74$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.0714843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No47c312.06$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.582231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes34c223.34$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-50.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No34c202.24$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0311541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadd4…af2ebacked Yes42c173.38$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.56633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x758a…4893backed Yes67c148.11$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.713050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No70c143.18$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.091060%6 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f397backed Yes24c140.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.53100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+222.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes41c132.44$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5830319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes21c105.33$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.336246.8%29 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4145…fc24backed No71c101.97$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5066…e914backed Yes36c100.65$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes67c99.99$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3317544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed No78c90.37$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.493545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes43c83.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed No80c81.34$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.072321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed Yes40c79.88$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.883259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb9d…d78ebacked Yes28c79.83$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.171435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcab3…4288backed No65c76.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+146.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf70…cfb7backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe3…14cdbacked Yes38c66.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-47.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes35c66.13$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.722846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes57c53.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9728636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed No72c51.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa791…bf23backed Yes29c49.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes29c49.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.491241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No25c49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2911347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a43…6f1cbacked Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.27per pick65cpaid+50.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x04e7…f37bbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.44580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…f8c4backed No59c43$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ee…0fbcbacked No79c41.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a67…a78ebacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304037.5%15 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…7f26backed Yes34c39.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.591450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00cc…bca1backed Yes42c37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.49944.4%44 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No66c28.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0313943.2%60 W · 79 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4ff…10f4backed No71c28.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf211…649abacked No73c27.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-4.3wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-65.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes53c20.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.58529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2142…79fdbacked No77c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.42462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.