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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$152,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,286 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x241f…3143backed Yes66c18,017$11,931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,931.141752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No37c9,672$3,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,112.3435519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes71c6,283$4,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,456.1517225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e8d…dfccbacked No28c5,572$1,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,004.01425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5fe…e320backed No20c5,163$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,128.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+182.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed Yes80c4,994$3,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,995.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes24c3,693$877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$877.323721.6%8 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c3,283$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.263859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes30c3,275$985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.754634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed No32c2,306$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.2612531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked No69c2,016$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.051233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed No12c2,000$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.998219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e8…5b74backed No51c1,955$993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.371931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x24d2…1472backed Yes2c1,798$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.571315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-72%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfca9…ec05backed Yes2c1,795$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No15c1,660$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.53542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7734…ff65backed Yes42c1,369$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9287…8556backed Yes2c1,364$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes71c1,139$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.7711541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes53c1,120$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.419142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7854…90a5backed Yes65c1,082$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.985343.4%23 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d22…d98bbacked Yes2c1,056$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked Yes49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500520%1 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.46per pick66cpaid-71.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc3…de08backed No33c1,010$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.02922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-50.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x618d…9599backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x512c…4206backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No35c951.83$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.1441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes48c911.86$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.23743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No50c899.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4503132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked No57c872.26$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$375.7610324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No49c869.32$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.478547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes13c826.65$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6216535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfba0…a7c4backed No18c805.01$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.612962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes47c801.55$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.153818.4%7 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-19.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked Yes2c789.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.954136.6%15 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+64.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No57c762.8$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.817452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed No16c617.14$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.42240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No45c613.01$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.167041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed No18c575.17$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.244436.4%16 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79c4…d1c7backed No33c545.94$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.781040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes58c535.88$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.3399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked No35c523.56$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.114146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d31…cb04backed No64c504.28$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.282050%10 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f3f…3d36backed No44c490.41$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250a…6d1dbacked Yes49c458.16$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.853243.8%14 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No22c450$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3518632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x761a…0e8ebacked No54c441.78$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.98425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-53.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed Yes73c364.43$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.585644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b7…c0bcbacked No28c364$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.542147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes63c356.82$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9522347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed No15c343.94$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.182657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No46c337.14$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.811,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No22c324.35$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.1517713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed No16c323.36$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.444969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x6d31…9862backed No24c282.95$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.73941%16 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+38%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8387…ace9backed Yes16c252$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.522045%9 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked No16c250$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.151338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No17c250$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20713943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6e…5727backed No41c239.41$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.255851.7%30 W · 28 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b26…488bbacked No17c235.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.291127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick11cpaid+64.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No22c228.28$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.066838.2%26 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e00…25acbacked No71c205.64$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b23…8278backed Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12420%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No20c200$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6193…d924backed No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1262437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda14…a40cbacked No42c199.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No17c199.59$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6115646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x946b…6f57backed No18c199.2$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.241163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No50c197$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.54522.2%10 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-58%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed No52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.31862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ff7cbacked Yes54c185.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-30.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427c…fa38backed Yes47c182.43$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.881838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes40c180$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8111347.8%54 W · 59 L+10.8wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No19c179$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8718914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2568…c6a7backed No26c176.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No57c174.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.163531.4%11 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x95bf…e00bbacked No14c172$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.92683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+108.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes79c172$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No30c169.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.473551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No56c167.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.729958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…88dfbacked Yes45c165.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes54c150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69a4…bba9backed No55c144.02$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.525655.4%31 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12d1…46cfbacked Yes54c141.13$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x613a…b945backed No15c129.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.47862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+77.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes76c129.3$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.410324.3%25 W · 78 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes57c122.51$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41eb…da1dbacked Yes55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.382035%7 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes42c106$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.522737%10 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+58.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb388…e496backed No35c101.63$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe15c…152cbacked No53c100.11$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.111233.3%4 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed No16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842450%12 W · 12 L+4.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+99.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413522.9%8 W · 27 L-6.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-47.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3bd…a4f1backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No14c99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0117021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.