Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf160cc74bcf80832c1b93e0124efa6c2395c02b37e805f6c4b1867c460f333ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 31c | 4,260$1,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.93 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 2,720$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.56 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 36c | 2,143$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 56c | 2,057$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.84 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 69c | 2,000$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 53c | 1,988$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.18 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 18c | 1,661$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.66 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 14c | 1,649$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 79c | 1,612$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.46 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 34c | 1,396$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.1 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 31c | 1,341$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.34 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 56c | 1,340$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.52 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 26c | 1,211$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 9c | 1,074$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 14c | 999.93$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 17c | 994$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.18 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed No | 62c | 805.23$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 70c | 800$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.91 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 68c | 738.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 702.65$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.83 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 26c | 619.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.08 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 29c | 572.16$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 59c | 565.85$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 28c | 552.91$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.77 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 30c | 500$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 75c | 490$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.69 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 48c | 466.7$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.7 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 39c | 384.28$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.28 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 22c | 366.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 15c | 311.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 23c | 305.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 8c | 298$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 17c | 290.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.92 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 51c | 276.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.38 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4b…f229backed Yes | 51c | 216.42$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes | 70c | 214.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 46c | 214.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…191fbacked Yes | 10c | 195.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 30c | 192.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.96 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 34c | 178.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b1…0cb9backed Yes | 78c | 172.36$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…c5babacked Yes | 68c | 147.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 62c | 146$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 14c | 133$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 76c | 132.49$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…27adbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 122.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…d2afbacked No | 19c | 112.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…28e5backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 72c | 99.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 78c | 99.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18e0…2150backed Yes | 68c | 91.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a5…9d0ebacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 42c | 71.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed No | 29c | 69.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 22c | 64.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…5f95backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 58.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 30c | 55.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 60c | 38.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…5f72backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…5681backed Yes | 50c | 29.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Yes | 75c | 26.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 69c | 25.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.