Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 50 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x325a8ea7370c3df15a826e073e361d71168a018df4a94c0f6533a3d07722c864
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 3c | 5,926$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,222$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 3c | 1,725$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 1,600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 5c | 1,305$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 870.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 2c | 726.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 42c | 484.96$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 450.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 22c | 412.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 10c | 337.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 10c | 318.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 10c | 298.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 17c | 280$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 215.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…c5babacked Yes | 10c | 209.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 11c | 204.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 67c | 198$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 13c | 160$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 24c | 155$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 35c | 142.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 46c | 131.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 123$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 120.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 35c | 114.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Yes | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 40c | 100.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 100.14$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 33c | 100.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5982…dfbebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 68c | 82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…1ddebacked Yes | 41c | 72.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Yes won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.