Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ecda379e9504f11d52b9767067fc186e919f2baf5400fbe6d72a4e2a07f42f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 8,302$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,739$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 6c | 5,680$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.06 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 4,300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 3,822$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…2283backed Yes | 1c | 3,237$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 3c | 2,314$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac92…67efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 4c | 946.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 9c | 893.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 4c | 678.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 3c | 639.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 601.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2e…40dabacked Yes | 13c | 537.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 9c | 532$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 4c | 458$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 4c | 387.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 7c | 356.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 15c | 337.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 6c | 320.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…c5babacked Yes | 12c | 172.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd1…acadbacked Yes | 12c | 96.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Yes won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.