Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ad8fdabe6efdf55b39391c2755ea3cfbab0300e8d564b26119691900ca5b3dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 6,062$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 1c | 3,253$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,906$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 1c | 1,135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a9…c4f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,117$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 5c | 909.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 3c | 800$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 709.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 676$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03b…62e0backed Yes | 6c | 613.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 5c | 547.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +425.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 12c | 536$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…1b1cbacked Yes | 8c | 425.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 7c | 409.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 3c | 386.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 7c | 351.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Yes | 7c | 331.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 9c | 330.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 6c | 297$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 8c | 192.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 12c | 102.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? this page
- Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 50 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 51 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Yes won
- Will 53 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 54 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
- Will 55 or more Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.