TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x095f…0a7b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 53 out of 100; worst World Politics at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20.75
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST+51.5%+$7.72
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+100%+$10
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30.58
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+31.6%+$4.8
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+26.3%+$52
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST+53.8%+$9.04
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+191.3%+$19.7
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+26.7%+$4.22
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+36.1%+$69
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+222.6%+$69
Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$36
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$36
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$36
Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+61.3%+$88.87
All 19 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-6.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Starmer out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Australian Labor Party win 85 or more seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+1,157.7%+$115.77
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 2025 election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 65 and 69 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.55
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Canada election called before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.3
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$19.8
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+334.8%+$66.96
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+222.6%+$207
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$32.5
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+28.2%+$11
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick4cpaid+81.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Stefon Diggs win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$32
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-13.5)backed Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Flyersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.