Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60168f3c498a738177a23bf499b03d0cb773c1b478255baddcf3e75283c0ecd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,950
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 55c | 4,968$2,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.03 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 11c | 4,116$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 23c | 3,980$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.51 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 55c | 3,277$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.61 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 1c | 3,136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 69c | 2,640$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.39 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 55c | 2,598$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,423.15 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc575…5da6backed No | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 19c | 2,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 9c | 1,966$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.13 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…4faebacked Yes | 78c | 1,808$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 43c | 1,567$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.59 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 1,417$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.81 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 46c | 1,191$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.46 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 71c | 1,150$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.82 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 1,139$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 35c | 1,110$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 36c | 962.54$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.33 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 35c | 844.29$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 37c | 808.1$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 52c | 732.11$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.72 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Yes | 24c | 640$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…c89dbacked No | 30c | 635.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…e0f7backed Yes | 74c | 545.31$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 60c | 465$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked No | 60c | 450.1$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 67c | 388.03$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 77c | 341.83$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.31 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…b078backed Yes | 74c | 292.08$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 35c | 271.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 260.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.11 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 21c | 241.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d7…4355backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 37c | 217$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 47c | 213$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.89 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 70c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd982…214cbacked Yes | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed Yes | 57c | 178.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 38c | 176.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 61c | 172$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 31c | 169.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 47c | 169$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 11c | 168.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 52c | 149.97$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 52c | 140.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.41 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed Yes | 79c | 139.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 56c | 137.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…7038backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 80c | 132$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…67c2backed Yes | 48c | 131.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 69c | 131$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 69c | 129.23$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 47c | 127.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed No | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 22c | 100.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 73c | 99.63$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 48c | 95.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 64c | 82.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…722bbacked Yes | 58c | 79.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 24c | 79.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 80c | 77.35$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 65c | 73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked No | 70c | 72.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 71c | 70.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…b75fbacked Yes | 38c | 67.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…81dbbacked Yes | 74c | 67.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 47c | 63.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…1863backed No | 33c | 61.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdad…d8b0backed Yes | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 44c | 45.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea3…eb77backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No | 75c | 43.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 43c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes | 60c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 67c | 41.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…b571backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 49c | 34.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…c16ebacked No | 71c | 34.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0e…9465backed Yes | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?this page
- Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?No won
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.