TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$73,902
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,902 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes55c4,968$2,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.0324861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked No11c4,116$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.881154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No23c3,980$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.512714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No55c3,277$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.615540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No1c3,136$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No69c2,640$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,820.396431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No55c2,598$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.154037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc575…5da6backed No1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0601855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes19c2,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6201225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No9c1,966$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.132740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes78c1,808$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.04560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+43.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes43c1,567$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.595433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes69c1,417$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.8131434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No46c1,191$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.462433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes71c1,150$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.824630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes75c1,139$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.2816833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No35c1,110$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.54139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes36c962.54$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.334833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No35c844.29$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.31250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes37c808.1$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.151421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes52c732.11$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.726841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked Yes24c640$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.431136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick17cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked No30c635.7$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.16147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe433…e0f7backed Yes74c545.31$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes60c465$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1861338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…f74dbacked No60c450.1$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick40cpaid-84.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes67c388.03$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.163548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No77c341.83$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.314431.8%14 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ee…b078backed Yes74c292.08$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes35c271.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.6415445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No29c260.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1133238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes21c241.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.141136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d7…4355backed Yes45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes37c217$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.714027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes47c213$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.891776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+69.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-82.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked Yes70c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.081090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0049…6034backed Yes41c200$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1184100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes21c190.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.48333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd982…214cbacked Yes79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.87683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked Yes80c180$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes57c178.42$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.18per pick42cpaid-63.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes38c176.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes61c172$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.081643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No31c169.44$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.011315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes47c169$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.2534333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No11c168.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.975510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No52c149.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.992128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-59.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes52c140.35$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.413850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd222…fbf6backed Yes79c139.24$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.245100%5 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No56c137.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.866235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8536…7038backed Yes37c135.14$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.14850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes80c132$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7b…67c2backed Yes48c131.31$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes69c131$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.611560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+33.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes69c129.23$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.23650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No47c127.24$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.564214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ad3…b694backed No79c125$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.751668.8%11 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick42cpaid+77.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed No30c120$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No55c120$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes45c111.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.115139.2%20 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No22c100.11$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6812440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3016632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1d2…0cefbacked Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked No73c99.63$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.941963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes48c95.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.31154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes70c90$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.94042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes64c82.92$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.922352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfa0…722bbacked Yes58c79.93$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No24c79.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.06296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes80c77.35$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes65c73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.553630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked No70c72.82$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.971442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked No71c70.83$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a25…b75fbacked Yes38c67.81$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.81633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dec…81dbbacked Yes74c67.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.714100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes45c66.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.673336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes47c63.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.694139%16 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef2…1863backed No33c61.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-57.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed No26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdad…d8b0backed Yes76c59.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.214100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.81090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+71.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No66c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfb1…b398backed Yes44c45.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.521952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ea3…eb77backed Yes25c44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked No75c43.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb4…21c1backed No43c43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.492429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bc6…4ddebacked Yes60c42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes67c41.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.591225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked No76c40$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.22722.2%6 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-70.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43030%9 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bba…b571backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No49c34.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.043432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a8a…c16ebacked No71c34.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f0e…9465backed Yes72c33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfa…73fcbacked No57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.