Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x185dfb6e222f3e467a98f39cd70a0083aa200425798efe9f1b2d9fb6dbd190ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 4c | 3,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 3c | 2,790$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.16 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…e030backed No | 10c | 2,352$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 2c | 1,462$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7304…0379backed No | 1c | 1,401$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 8c | 1,047$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 3c | 710$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 77c | 677.21$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 19c | 599.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 66c | 521$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 21c | 454.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.59 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 10c | 399.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 13c | 393.87$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 11c | 365.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 21c | 351.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 23c | 265.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 77c | 240.26$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 24c | 203.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 15c | 197.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 79c | 181.92$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 46c | 165.69$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 21c | 164.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…19a4backed Yes | 69c | 144.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…7c1dbacked No | 34c | 102.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 23c | 100.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…abc3backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 13c | 94.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 28c | 78.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab8…e781backed Yes | 67c | 75.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dad…80c6backed Yes | 68c | 70.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 23c | 69.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…5410backed No | 32c | 67.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…6844backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 60.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 21c | 57.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ae…d3e4backed Yes | 68c | 53.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fd…ffd5backed No | 23c | 53.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e7…8b4cbacked No | 39c | 50.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9482…fa5dbacked Yes | 68c | 50.04$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…9dd2backed Yes | 68c | 46.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…f87bbacked No | 34c | 43.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…3836backed No | 36c | 41.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaba…4669backed Yes | 68c | 39.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…67cabacked Yes | 68c | 38.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…c983backed No | 35c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…2ca6backed No | 34c | 33.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…73fcbacked No | 34c | 33.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…74f6backed Yes | 69c | 28.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…e176backed Yes | 68c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…7beabacked Yes | 68c | 25.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6a…50acbacked Yes | 68c | 24.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecf…e8c5backed Yes | 79c | 24.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61d…505ebacked Yes | 79c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…30f2backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…56a7backed Yes | 68c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b47…37bcbacked Yes | 68c | 21.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4e…3f76backed Yes | 62c | 19.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…a6bfbacked Yes | 68c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd9…347ebacked Yes | 79c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74a…ce95backed Yes | 68c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…793cbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?this page
- Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?No won
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.