Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa64e3f7dfbb9d4c604aef37c4632f0d0e73146f19d31bc6394113295ab3e1e74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,812
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $156,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,812 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Yes | 12c | 27,966$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,217.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 17c | 9,917$1,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,678.37 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed Yes | 25c | 7,896$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,994.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 7,302$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.22 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 5,580$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.69 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 73c | 4,525$3,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 13c | 4,383$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 74c | 3,284$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.3 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 19c | 2,290$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.83 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 2,254$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.23 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 25c | 1,433$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.43 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 19c | 1,326$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 14c | 1,112$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…7547backed Yes | 10c | 1,071$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 58c | 1,060$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.75 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 77c | 909$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 14c | 892.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 58c | 888$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.96 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 17c | 817.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 56c | 812.19$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.95 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 15c | 790.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…1d54backed Yes | 25c | 787.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 785.9$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 13c | 768.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 751.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…e93bbacked Yes | 17c | 733.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 70c | 724.56$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.68 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 11c | 700$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 37c | 659.53$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.03 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54cd…fc29backed Yes | 21c | 641.34$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 17c | 568$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes | 14c | 564.24$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 16c | 555.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 19c | 550$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 22c | 547.69$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 11c | 515.52$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 73c | 509.65$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea3…eb77backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 11c | 473.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 453.64$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes | 9c | 450.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 448.62$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…fdc3backed Yes | 17c | 430.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 14c | 385.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 368.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed No | 75c | 355.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 15c | 339$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 15c | 337.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 37c | 324.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 21c | 311.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 74c | 304$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.34 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 296.58$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 73c | 289.09$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 17c | 282.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 18c | 263$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 78c | 257$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +425.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 16c | 240$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 238.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 21c | 235.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f15bbacked Yes | 21c | 231.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes | 17c | 230.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 15c | 230$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes | 21c | 208.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes | 13c | 200.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…3a5bbacked Yes | 22c | 199.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 15c | 198.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 35c | 197.08$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 34c | 191.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6704…baa4backed Yes | 56c | 177.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…0416backed Yes | 18c | 174.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 15c | 164.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 124 | 40.3%50 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…d326backed Yes | 16c | 155.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546c…e75dbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b11…8625backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes | 63c | 150$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 23c | 140.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.81 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 43c | 136$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 135$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 133.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 60c | 131.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 20c | 130.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8663…35e7backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 22c | 119$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c5…34ecbacked Yes | 17c | 117.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 21c | 114.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?this page
- Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?No won
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.