TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$158,812
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$156,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,812 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad85…78fcbacked Yes12c27,966$3,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,217.761136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick17cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes17c9,917$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.37214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615f…e162backed Yes25c7,896$1,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes17c7,302$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,235.223426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes7c5,580$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.69452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No73c4,525$3,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.492516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes13c4,383$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f76…8e57backed Yes6c3,333$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No74c3,284$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.35540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes19c2,290$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.832714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes10c2,254$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2324861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes25c1,433$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.434833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed Yes19c1,326$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes14c1,112$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.641154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91a4…7547backed Yes10c1,071$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes58c1,060$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.757639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked No77c909$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes14c892.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked No58c888$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.961764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed Yes17c817.47$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.89560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+145.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No56c812.19$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.954936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes15c790.39$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.562222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3740…1d54backed Yes25c787.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes15c785.9$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1816632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes13c768.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes16c751.5$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4470…e93bbacked Yes17c733.11$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No70c724.56$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.682433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes11c700$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No78c700$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-81.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed No37c659.53$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.031442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x54cd…fc29backed Yes21c641.34$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes17c568$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.821225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7cd…126cbacked Yes14c564.24$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes16c555.28$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.851030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes19c550$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.51643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes22c547.69$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes11c515.52$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.955510.9%6 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick9cpaid+39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No73c509.65$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.623432.4%11 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea3…eb77backed Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes11c473.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No79c453.64$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9345035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe10e…cfddbacked Yes9c450.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No80c448.62$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.133850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555f…fdc3backed Yes17c430.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-74%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes14c385.33$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.23296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes18c368.25$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.74214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x063d…3567backed No75c355.99$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes15c339$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.49147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-89.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes15c337.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No37c324.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.69933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0647…8f61backed Yes21c311.02$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.83333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No74c304$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.345433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes22c300$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes17c299.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-82.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes31c296.58$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No73c289.09$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.691090%9 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick69cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes17c282.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.382634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…29debacked Yes18c263$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.222040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No78c257$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.54922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid+425.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes16c240$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.43225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes21c240$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.731118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes13c238.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes21c235.88$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.461533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x249a…f15bbacked Yes21c231.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.79933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ad4…dc12backed Yes17c230.98$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes15c230$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.876841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c8…badcbacked Yes21c208.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ca…04c5backed Yes13c200.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1870%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22f4…3a5bbacked Yes22c199.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes15c198.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No35c197.08$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.661936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes34c191.08$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.73333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes56c177.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick72cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd24…0416backed Yes18c174.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes15c164.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1712440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8b…d326backed Yes16c155.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+30.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3b…3035backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271020%2 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-69.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x546c…e75dbacked Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b11…8625backed Yes18c150$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2420…ce7fbacked Yes63c150$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a9…5369backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes23c140.92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8115445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No43c136$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.523630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes12c135$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c133.13$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8816833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes60c131.81$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes20c130.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.615044%22 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5725…36e3backed Yes10c130$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133551.4%18 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8663…35e7backed Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes22c119$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.183225%8 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c5…34ecbacked Yes17c117.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-62.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes21c114.29$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.