Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x950dd24befc5a0debaa70e068ac4171f99ea568b8adcd091f752e1a7b7757045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…5ed4backed No | 1c | 9,708$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 34c | 8,489$2,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.91 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 2c | 8,061$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 40c | 6,031$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,390.28 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 9c | 5,036$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.29 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 4,724$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.64 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…5653backed Yes | 64c | 3,403$2,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 3,287$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed No | 0c | 2,580$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 67c | 2,041$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.71 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 2c | 1,954$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 67c | 1,771$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.28 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 1c | 1,756$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 56c | 1,615$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.93 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 45c | 1,547$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.62 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb8…9231backed No | 38c | 1,500$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.98 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb169…b67abacked Yes | 55c | 1,232$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 63c | 1,172$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.13 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 34c | 1,164$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.51 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed No | 11c | 1,085$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 56c | 1,060$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.2 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…b02dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 66c | 991.5$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.11 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 57c | 969$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 59c | 917$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.72 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 4c | 906$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 30c | 831.11$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.44 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 58c | 790$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.46 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a4…8611backed Yes | 76c | 665.79$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 47c | 659$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.79 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 37c | 639.64$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.46 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 38c | 600$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 61c | 555$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked No | 43c | 550.75$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed Yes | 68c | 548.72$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b57…198fbacked Yes | 76c | 526.32$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked No | 31c | 490.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…84b0backed Yes | 63c | 458.88$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 412.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 30c | 383.01$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 65c | 274.8$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.18 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1744…1d2abacked No | 36c | 249.52$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 54c | 247.75$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.04 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 66c | 236.58$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.47 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 67c | 225$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 205$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…70c1backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 62c | 194.99$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 63c | 181.56$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb56…3fc0backed No | 10c | 170$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 37c | 167$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.59 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed No | 36c | 162.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 62c | 151$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 46c | 131$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 39c | 125.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes | 69c | 115$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 60c | 113.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 58c | 112$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 100.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…b694backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked No | 37c | 94.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 61c | 81.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…56acbacked Yes | 58c | 78.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…3e7fbacked No | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…b22ebacked Yes | 55c | 46.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…f747backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 68c | 43.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 58c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc195…5f72backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked Yes | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d87…8a2dbacked No | 50c | 24.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…41f2backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…51d7backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd76…e2bfbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?this page
- Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?No won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.