TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7ea5…5ed4backed No1c9,708$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No34c8,489$2,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,883.912433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed No2c8,061$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.31214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No40c6,031$2,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,390.282944.8%13 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No9c5,036$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.291315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-76.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No10c4,724$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.64452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaba1…5653backed Yes64c3,403$2,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No1c3,287$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.87837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick9cpaid+246.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed No0c2,580$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes67c2,041$1,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.7124861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No2c1,954$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.872152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes67c1,771$1,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.284957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c1,756$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.171320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes56c1,615$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.933333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No45c1,547$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.625836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed No38c1,500$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.984639.1%18 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb169…b67abacked Yes55c1,232$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes63c1,172$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.135433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No34c1,164$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.515540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed No11c1,085$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.32714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-77.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes56c1,060$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.26431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1b31…b02dbacked Yes60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No31c1,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3102714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes66c991.5$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.111758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes57c969$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.881154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes59c917$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.724833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No4c906$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.67395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No30c831.11$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.444139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes58c790$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.466841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a4…8611backed Yes76c665.79$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No47c659$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.792347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c639.64$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4616833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No38c600$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.511414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick40cpaid-81.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes61c555$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.451855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No43c550.75$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.37933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes68c548.72$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b57…198fbacked Yes76c526.32$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-34.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1803941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1351154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+102.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad85…78fcbacked No31c490.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.631136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick17cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…84b0backed Yes63c458.88$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c412.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4134129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No30c383.01$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.072045%9 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No25c300$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751888.9%16 W · 2 L+3.7wins+0.21per pick68cpaid+18.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes65c274.8$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.181963.2%12 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1744…1d2abacked No36c249.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.261172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5725…36e3backed Yes54c247.75$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.043551.4%18 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes66c236.58$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.473850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…8ef1backed Yes67c225$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.25425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-62.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No35c205$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6145035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No40c200$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x049a…b22abacked Yes62c194.99$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.11050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-18.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes63c181.56$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.181353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb56…3fc0backed No10c170$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-59.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No37c167$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.59296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed No36c162.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.751080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes62c151$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.381776.5%13 W · 4 L+5.0wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+69.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-73.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No46c131$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2680%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No39c125.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.961822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes69c115$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes60c113.28$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.911090%9 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.38per pick52cpaid+71.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes58c112$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1634333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No33c100.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.433238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ad3…b694backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501668.8%11 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick42cpaid+77.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x50a6…31b9backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+61.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick30cpaid-20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3a5…877dbacked No37c94.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-43.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes61c81.93$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.932352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x108f…56acbacked Yes58c78.08$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Yes65c77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.955139.2%20 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x925a…3e7fbacked No40c75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes63c75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.752948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.520542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2bae…2e92backed Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.54042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcfb2…b22ebacked Yes55c46.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed Yes66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.45475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked No68c43.91$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes58c34.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.744139%16 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc195…5f72backed Yes60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb1…b398backed Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf11f…df5cbacked Yes76c26.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes55c25.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.252544%11 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d87…8a2dbacked No50c24.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2760%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1270%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…9074backed Yes64c21.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9287…41f2backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd76…e2bfbacked Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.