TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$773,968
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$682,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $773,968 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4558…a2b3backed No79c63,809$50,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,209.762433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No80c46,667$37,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,503.543737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes16c39,726$6,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,404.11533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x072a…cee6backed Yes22c31,924$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0001414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes10c26,572$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7301822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes31c22,948$7,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,167.541533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes4c19,161$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.451030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes54c18,254$9,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,914.241442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes4c17,223$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.94214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-89.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes8c15,000$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1252128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c11,268$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.24452.2%1 W · 44 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick9cpaid+90.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes3c11,044$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.912222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes1c10,800$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.91225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes8c10,099$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.631330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No43c10,094$4,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,724.251936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes0c8,996$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes17c8,678$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.773426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c8,420$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.311320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes7c7,060$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.923630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed Yes17c6,803$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.121118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+137.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes0c6,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2716632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes8c5,953$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c4…ad84backed Yes16c5,913$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc979…4a98backed No80c5,908$4,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.68560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+145.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92a7…85c0backed Yes18c5,676$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes10c5,496$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8b5…a5cabacked No61c5,180$3,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.331145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed No72c5,113$3,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.462944.8%13 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes1c4,852$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.981118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes14c4,706$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes14c4,703$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.13333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No58c4,582$2,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.084936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes15c4,567$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.716431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x232f…a5afbacked Yes9c4,496$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663e…61c8backed Yes0c4,400$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick0cpaid+10,839.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a25…b75fbacked Yes21c4,255$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.87633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6319…adefbacked Yes20c3,931$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfe…5087backed Yes11c3,811$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.611127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x640c…8b6fbacked Yes16c3,746$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes0c3,600$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6731534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9488…b5a6backed Yes0c3,600$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6250%1 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick0cpaid+12,367.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes37c3,507$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.153740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes18c3,104$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.961241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c3,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes29c2,625$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.49862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes10c2,560$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.966841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes16c2,490$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8716833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ea3…eb77backed Yes15c2,435$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.63850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes22c2,426$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadeb…1816backed Yes8c2,412$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No67c2,384$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.046132.8%20 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes30c2,357$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.8825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…cec5backed Yes12c2,213$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+186%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615f…e162backed Yes14c2,133$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes57c2,083$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.913225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404015%6 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes29c2,000$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes24c2,000$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed No54c1,998$1,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.293345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No76c1,866$1,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.351855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No80c1,831$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.853941%16 W · 23 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed Yes28c1,741$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.241330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9352…6db9backed Yes58c1,737$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…1aa4backed No61c1,714$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.771225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes12c1,600$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.024630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8356…7ad1backed Yes8c1,554$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes2c1,509$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.36147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-89.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes48c1,507$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.6860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes14c1,460$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.44296.9%2 W · 27 L-5.0wins-0.17per pick24cpaid-80.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No79c1,434$1,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.693850%19 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes25c1,428$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.434833.3%16 W · 32 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8536…7038backed Yes11c1,409$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150850%4 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x91a4…7547backed Yes10c1,383$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes12c1,375$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e0a…45c0backed Yes6c1,362$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes60c1,256$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.552825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes12c1,250$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.575433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes7c1,220$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed Yes15c1,128$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.21030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No72c1,112$805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.962356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes1c1,111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes11c1,042$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd5…e030backed Yes22c1,029$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-69.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d6…7690backed Yes30c1,005$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d04…8859backed Yes4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-54.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes13c1,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702025%5 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd8…624bbacked Yes6c999.92$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67a4…7069backed No69c999.89$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.96560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f4…3a5bbacked Yes5c953$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfac6…6c64backed Yes18c948.74$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2e…40dabacked Yes27c915.28$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cdf…c324backed Yes28c892.86$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7b…67c2backed Yes9c842.81$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes14c820$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid-7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes23c812$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.521471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes39c803.39$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.041464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No72c750$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes23c700$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.874022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…6d52backed Yes14c700$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.