Us Midterms · resolved market
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f4e3dcb4906ecf8ef0097be111b1857ac758d3595f348bd0181356c39d1c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $773,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $682,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $773,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed No | 79c | 63,809$50,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,209.76 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 80c | 46,667$37,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,503.54 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 16c | 39,726$6,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,404.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 22c | 31,924$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes | 10c | 26,572$2,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,730 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 31c | 22,948$7,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,167.54 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 4c | 19,161$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 54c | 18,254$9,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,914.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 17,223$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.94 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked Yes | 8c | 15,000$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 11,268$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.24 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 3c | 11,044$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.91 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 1c | 10,800$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 8c | 10,099$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 43c | 10,094$4,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,724.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes | 0c | 8,996$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 17c | 8,678$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.77 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,420$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 7c | 7,060$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.92 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 17c | 6,803$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 8c | 5,953$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c4…ad84backed Yes | 16c | 5,913$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed No | 80c | 5,908$4,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +145.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a7…85c0backed Yes | 18c | 5,676$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes | 10c | 5,496$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked No | 61c | 5,180$3,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 72c | 5,113$3,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd23…8e4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,852$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 14c | 4,706$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 14c | 4,703$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.1 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 58c | 4,582$2,663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.08 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 15c | 4,567$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.71 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 9c | 4,496$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 0cpaid | +10,839.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…b75fbacked Yes | 21c | 4,255$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…adefbacked Yes | 20c | 3,931$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfe…5087backed Yes | 11c | 3,811$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640c…8b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 3,746$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 0cpaid | +12,367.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 37c | 3,507$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed Yes | 18c | 3,104$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 29c | 2,625$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.49 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 10c | 2,560$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.96 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 2,490$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.87 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea3…eb77backed Yes | 15c | 2,435$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 22c | 2,426$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…1816backed Yes | 8c | 2,412$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 67c | 2,384$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.04 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 30c | 2,357$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…cec5backed Yes | 12c | 2,213$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +186%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615f…e162backed Yes | 14c | 2,133$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,083$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.91 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 54c | 1,998$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 76c | 1,866$1,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 80c | 1,831$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.85 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed Yes | 28c | 1,741$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…6db9backed Yes | 58c | 1,737$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed No | 61c | 1,714$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,600$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8356…7ad1backed Yes | 8c | 1,554$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 2c | 1,509$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…34ecbacked Yes | 48c | 1,507$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 14c | 1,460$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.44 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 79c | 1,434$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.69 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 25c | 1,428$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.43 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…7038backed Yes | 11c | 1,409$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…7547backed Yes | 10c | 1,383$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes | 12c | 1,375$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…45c0backed Yes | 6c | 1,362$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 60c | 1,256$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.55 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 1,250$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.57 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 7c | 1,220$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 15c | 1,128$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 72c | 1,112$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,111$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd073…b757backed Yes | 11c | 1,042$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…e030backed Yes | 22c | 1,029$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…7690backed Yes | 30c | 1,005$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…624bbacked Yes | 6c | 999.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a4…7069backed No | 69c | 999.89$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…3a5bbacked Yes | 5c | 953$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 18c | 948.74$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2e…40dabacked Yes | 27c | 915.28$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…c324backed Yes | 28c | 892.86$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…67c2backed Yes | 9c | 842.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd03…c6e0backed Yes | 14c | 820$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 23c | 812$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 39c | 803.39$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.04 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 72c | 750$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…6d52backed Yes | 14c | 700$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?this page
- Bernie Sanders votes to confirm RFK Jr?No won
- Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will John Curtis vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will Lisa Murkowski vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
- Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?No won
- Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.