Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627aacb00c6c054f1e4894019ff49f1681f22466fc819f20c200a9c96774748a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 21,330$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 5c | 11,800$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,842$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 15c | 1,715$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,299$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,202$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,183$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 6c | 903.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 15c | 669.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 3c | 633.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 80c | 592.58$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…3c13backed Yes | 2c | 513.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 505.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 16c | 449$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 154 | 45.5%70 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 341.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 312.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Yes | 8c | 301.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc1…fe91backed Yes | 10c | 273.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 9c | 264.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 15c | 224$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b74…33f9backed Yes | 10c | 186.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 14c | 180.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 13c | 159$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 15c | 156.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 12c | 154.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…ca08backed Yes | 9c | 124.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ca…74e2backed Yes | 15c | 116.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 9c | 113.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 103.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 12c | 99.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paul Dans be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?this page
- Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?Yes won
- Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
- Will Thomas Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.