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Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$85,516
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,516 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No9c5,302$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.3312623.8%30 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No15c2,290$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.5636440.1%146 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes79c2,173$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.1736834.2%126 W · 242 L-1.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked No22c2,000$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.311030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No12c1,995$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.615232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No11c1,158$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9716634.3%57 W · 109 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked No18c1,110$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.023721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No14c1,029$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.252218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No3c847.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4317132.2%55 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77e…bb3dbacked No14c825.48$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.91747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No11c760.63$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0610048%48 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No16c672.62$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.617731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No11c670.48$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.946650%33 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No9c650$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.694136.6%15 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+140.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No13c618.12$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1629134.4%100 W · 191 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked No14c600$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No17c574.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.555238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed No20c550$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No9c534.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.368326.5%22 W · 61 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No8c530.4$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1520939.2%82 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No9c524.71$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.124548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No14c501.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.084114.6%6 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c432.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.571092.8%3 W · 106 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed No17c429.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.876520%13 W · 52 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0676…3b27backed No20c425$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes66c397.81$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.2720743.5%90 W · 117 L+15.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes76c377.8$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4422633.2%75 W · 151 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No4c357.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.999748.5%47 W · 50 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a81…c57fbacked No21c357.16$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No11c345.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.729429.8%28 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes73c340$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6221431.3%67 W · 147 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No13c326.16$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9611839%46 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No23c325.21$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0637822.2%84 W · 294 L-28.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No35c325$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.56835.3%24 W · 44 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-46%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed No7c299.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.86432.8%21 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No15c285.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4521656%121 W · 95 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No13c279.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1219911.1%22 W · 177 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-39.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x343d…cd2ebacked No7c230$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No8c225$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.55442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No14c205.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7918429.9%55 W · 129 L-9.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5403…b62cbacked No13c201.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.996653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c4e…b978backed No16c199.84$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2480%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes79c195.12$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.913231.3%10 W · 22 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-45.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb651…2089backed No25c194.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.462450%12 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes77c191.89$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.954100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No20c189.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4954312%65 W · 478 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No6c180$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9920342.4%86 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes73c174$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1626862.7%168 W · 100 L+27.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+6.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked No17c160.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes79c158.99$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.992962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa145…49e6backed No19c157.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce4…9766backed No16c156.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb925…6f23backed No20c153.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed No19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.58143.2%35 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61c8…1ed4backed No23c140.96$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No10c140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411250%56 W · 56 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb333…e295backed No17c129.41$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No19c128$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7412850.8%65 W · 63 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No17c125$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.252766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be2…e7a0backed Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257100%7 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+138.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes78c123.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.6217532.6%57 W · 118 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbaf…3996backed No17c114.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc79f…e3febacked No13c108.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65258%2 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5644…2befbacked No19c107.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e1…b0f6backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…b7f2backed Yes77c100$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878d…1a9bbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6def…7096backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6547…82b3backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No17c92.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0773615.1%111 W · 625 L-113.3wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-65.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xca38…b6d0backed No17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.213348.9%65 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7d…b015backed No14c71.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No16c70.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.492259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6a2…4b66backed No24c67.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes77c63.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.669240.2%37 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…543abacked No17c61.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x389d…bcd7backed Yes73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x009b…9be8backed Yes77c54.7$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf4…b597backed Yes77c52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b03…83dcbacked Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-56.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf579…b6a9backed Yes76c46.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes75c37.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.372540%10 W · 15 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-32.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x95cd…b9a8backed Yes77c35.06$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.062642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.