TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,556,618
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,584,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,556,618 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2755…5016backed Yes55c83,781$46,367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,413.831631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Yes55c47,924$26,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,357.351216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No38c35,736$13,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,433.182638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed No52c32,000$16,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,579.9950%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes57c31,849$18,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,591.335326.4%14 W · 39 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Yes51c27,131$13,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,235.114729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No49c22,415$11,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,047.311330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+124.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3102…406abacked Yes53c22,020$11,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,329.85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e41…f050backed Yes55c21,453$11,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,721.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-63.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes48c21,000$10,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,870728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a7d…0adbbacked Yes53c20,311$10,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,479.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes52c20,200$10,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,696.883225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8628…27c2backed Yes52c16,190$8,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,732.061330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed Yes59c15,882$9,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,528.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f36…f6bebacked Yes46c14,502$6,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,803.81030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc79d…0203backed Yes52c13,473$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,472.91633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed Yes62c12,948$7,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,977.351346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No55c12,804$7,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,097.241855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4124…5827backed Yes44c12,482$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,982.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes52c12,036$6,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,790.782850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe12…3093backed Yes51c11,364$5,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,560.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No49c11,168$5,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,442.083737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b5…205cbacked No42c11,000$4,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,600944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b81…38cfbacked No50c10,847$5,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,423.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0822…c30ebacked Yes50c10,847$5,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,423.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd564…d3a9backed No50c10,692$5,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,345.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebe…5e03backed No50c10,605$5,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,302.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f56…173abacked Yes50c10,496$5,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,247.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4caa…d4f7backed Yes50c10,425$5,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,212.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1188…f4adbacked No50c10,298$5,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,148.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc066…672dbacked Yes50c10,294$5,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fb2…1f6cbacked No49c10,258$5,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,026.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…cf55backed No50c10,187$5,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe319…8f82backed Yes50c10,173$5,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09b0…bffebacked Yes50c10,130$5,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,065.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb992…7920backed Yes50c10,112$5,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,055.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b47…2f60backed No50c10,108$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,053.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7da9…9a22backed No50c10,099$5,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,049.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3c…8e95backed No50c10,098$5,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,048.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d2…0357backed Yes50c10,066$5,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,032.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72d…37debacked Yes62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,800560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2158…fe65backed No55c10,000$5,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,529.991353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No56c10,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,599.981650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6bb…50bebacked Yes51c9,828$5,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,815.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No54c9,824$5,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,339.693336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes72c9,692$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,691.966431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x86dd…7948backed Yes51c9,542$4,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,694.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No52c9,371$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,872.752623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf4…7883backed No52c8,500$4,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,425837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+121.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Yes63c7,842$4,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,936.041020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-65.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba20…28b8backed No39c7,760$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes49c7,676$3,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,952.033116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf86d…e314backed No38c7,375$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes62c7,124$4,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,673.195738.6%22 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes54c7,014$3,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,250.712944.8%13 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x579c…d88dbacked Yes53c6,755$3,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,144.99728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed Yes51c6,221$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,071.411442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes54c6,104$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.43333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91c7…28ccbacked No57c6,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,420475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid-1.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes51c5,963$3,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,935.772222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes61c5,961$3,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.914957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4b3…7f64backed Yes51c5,943$3,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,886.44540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb367…3f7cbacked No41c5,750$2,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,357.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes52c5,660$2,931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,729.655433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe05…c322backed No40c5,622$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes48c5,582$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.961650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+64%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes49c5,339$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,738.522025%5 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe43c…01adbacked Yes45c5,326$2,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8740…e390backed Yes49c5,244$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,667.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes51c5,176$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,524.433721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x776d…2088backed Yes49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.04633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+119.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf596…8c31backed Yes52c5,083$2,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,441.321050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69df…bc1ebacked Yes48c5,001$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3613…79e1backed No39c5,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes50c4,897$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,452.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No43c4,864$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085.4115150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e02…817ebacked No6c4,750$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x128a…f49ebacked No40c4,540$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes73c4,475$3,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.82035%7 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes49c4,285$2,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.155824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes46c4,257$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.494936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No45c4,022$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.777731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25e…0aa5backed No44c3,825$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.8757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa492…d2fdbacked Yes55c3,700$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x98e7…0a64backed Yes51c3,509$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,724.521625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed No51c3,500$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.891816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes59c3,390$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,389.831822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes47c3,334$1,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.021968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No24c3,327$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.641931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked Yes59c3,307$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.36944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0d…5929backed Yes43c3,185$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,810.05633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…ea99backed Yes8c3,000$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7601100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes58c2,900$1,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,218825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd0ff…01c0backed Yes52c2,885$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-67.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4b…f229backed Yes63c2,876$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.51241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes50c2,750$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3752055%11 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+63.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes43c2,653$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.031136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…c114backed Yes50c2,583$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.05728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes49c2,537$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.923435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd71…d127backed Yes41c2,526$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,490.451283.3%10 W · 2 L+5.4wins+0.45per pick39cpaid+227.2%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.