Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7eca3eee73a4d437797aeb9a1815aaf4484403bdb926791f7e5c435a7f05f0e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $892,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $866,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $892,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8c8…7407backed Yes | 57c | 33,291$18,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,870.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 50c | 32,778$16,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,272.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 38c | 27,625$10,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,481.24 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 49c | 26,380$12,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,815.33 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…f9c2backed Yes | 46c | 21,500$9,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,984.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78c…ff0abacked Yes | 46c | 21,000$9,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,580 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…c322backed Yes | 39c | 18,294$7,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,211.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed Yes | 55c | 16,564$9,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,041.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…d9bbbacked No | 52c | 16,270$8,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,789.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 53c | 15,861$8,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,395.81 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…3930backed Yes | 44c | 14,408$6,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,289.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 45c | 14,263$6,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,439.34 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 51c | 12,509$6,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,435 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bb…7b4bbacked No | 48c | 10,709$5,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,568.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…4c3cbacked Yes | 49c | 10,700$5,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,243.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…4ef5backed No | 48c | 10,564$5,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,493.05 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…afd7backed No | 51c | 10,505$5,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,147.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa409…b250backed Yes | 49c | 10,165$4,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,980.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9467…fc3ebacked No | 51c | 10,125$5,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,961.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…c665backed Yes | 50c | 9,887$4,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea2…492fbacked Yes | 52c | 9,885$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,140.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d6…adf4backed No | 49c | 9,678$4,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,935.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…73e8backed Yes | 51c | 9,673$4,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,932.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 61c | 9,599$5,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,782.1 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 62c | 9,296$5,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,513.26 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fad…1d0abacked Yes | 52c | 9,255$4,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,822.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 52c | 8,987$4,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,313.96 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…397cbacked Yes | 41c | 8,842$3,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,665.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ee…d947backed Yes | 48c | 8,656$4,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,179.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 53c | 7,076$3,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,722.23 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 60c | 7,050$4,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,805.77 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 51c | 6,874$3,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,370.39 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…dd6fbacked Yes | 48c | 6,347$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 52c | 6,138$3,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,171.19 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 40c | 6,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…31fdbacked Yes | 51c | 5,881$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb367…3f7cbacked Yes | 22c | 5,758$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 52c | 5,032$2,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,438.7 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes | 49c | 4,847$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 52c | 4,493$2,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,336.59 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed Yes | 31c | 4,478$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…134bbacked Yes | 52c | 4,237$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked Yes | 5c | 4,192$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 49c | 4,000$1,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.97 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed No | 52c | 3,900$2,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 34c | 3,767$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.62 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes | 57c | 3,396$1,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 44c | 3,356$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.9 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 44c | 3,124$1,371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.57 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…f74dbacked Yes | 52c | 3,051$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.58 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 49c | 3,002$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…bc1ebacked Yes | 51c | 3,001$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…da79backed Yes | 50c | 2,800$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 63c | 2,590$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.05 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5e…463fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,564$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…2de2backed Yes | 40c | 2,478$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…0aa5backed Yes | 15c | 2,260$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 52c | 2,191$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.56 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 52c | 2,128$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…f49ebacked Yes | 49c | 2,037$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 51c | 1,965$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…fe7dbacked Yes | 47c | 1,698$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 1,623$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.76 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a9…307bbacked No | 48c | 1,600$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe304…7dd5backed Yes | 26c | 1,597$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…7b05backed Yes | 53c | 1,581$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 57c | 1,561$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 66c | 1,521$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.33 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,519$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 53c | 1,500$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096a…3dacbacked Yes | 58c | 1,500$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 39c | 1,445$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed Yes | 50c | 1,383$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked Yes | 38c | 1,367$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2855…afffbacked No | 44c | 1,347$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aae…14a3backed Yes | 1c | 1,306$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc81…a6a5backed Yes | 21c | 1,296$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…e5dcbacked Yes | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,206$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.26 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…37d4backed Yes | 50c | 1,098$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 49c | 1,070$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.69 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 1,067$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.19 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed No | 55c | 1,065$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.89 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…55f5backed Yes | 39c | 1,051$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb586…7518backed No | 62c | 1,050$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…39b9backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 39c | 1,000$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8025…fce2backed Yes | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ee…d8e2backed Yes | 51c | 979.76$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1492…6c9abacked Yes | 38c | 878.97$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948c…42eebacked Yes | 38c | 876.32$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…a871backed Yes | 45c | 867.87$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Yes | 38c | 857.06$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 54c | 836.43$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.13 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed No | 51c | 823.28$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.