World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 65 and 69 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2355ef04419ac122bf8e8070c75c584666316973f2a9c16a7981399f92a83e18
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 7,801$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.08 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8644…3904backed Yes | 8c | 2,269$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.53 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 10c | 860.15$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 12c | 526.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 16c | 114$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 39c | 103.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 43c | 101.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 28c | 68.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 65 and 69 seats?this page
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 45 and 49 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50 and 54 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 55 and 59 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 60 and 64 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 70 and 74 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.