World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x264603d73262d18b7f7cea8a616620d59354d341b84f30ac520b4929e487d42d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 19c | 11,071$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,918.42 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 15c | 5,443$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.32 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 5,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb843…1b3fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,553$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,088.23 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,005$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +264.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.5 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec4…bf73backed No | 11c | 883.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 16c | 721.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…42e9backed Yes | 50c | 606.01$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 3c | 589.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.62 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +189.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 17c | 573.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 50c | 561.6$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.36 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 26c | 503.52$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.81 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 16c | 496.04$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 59c | 481.75$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 72c | 445.66$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.16 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 4c | 343.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.26 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed Yes | 76c | 316.5$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 14c | 173$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.65 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c0…05b5backed Yes | 18c | 137.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 63c | 129$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d4…2fd7backed Yes | 80c | 126.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed No | 70c | 124.87$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…0356backed Yes | 56c | 120.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 21c | 82.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…7c87backed Yes | 80c | 54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…2c0ebacked Yes | 79c | 46.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a47…7177backed Yes | 80c | 36.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats?this page
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win 75 or more seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 45 and 49 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50 and 54 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 55 and 59 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 60 and 64 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 65 and 69 seats?No won
- Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 70 and 74 seats?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.