Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5193e1dbd548e792d51bbf361e419e45c3945ca3253275fbae82cfc13b2355a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 3,676$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,490.69 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 31c | 2,457$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.91 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 74c | 1,516$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.62 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 44c | 1,105$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.03 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked No | 22c | 1,027$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.23 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2e03backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 23c | 970.99$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.75 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 770$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 31c | 600.1$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 43c | 540$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.98 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed Yes | 70c | 519$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 503.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 62c | 501.67$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…36e3backed Yes | 9c | 498.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 5c | 451.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 79c | 407.04$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.17 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 243.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.71 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 40c | 230$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bf…c049backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 74c | 191$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 32c | 157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…c6d1backed Yes | 76c | 153.62$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 26c | 153$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 14c | 152.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 53c | 150.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 40c | 146.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed No | 36c | 145$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 140.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 69c | 140.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1f…34babacked Yes | 73c | 136.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 78c | 135$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…a6a2backed Yes | 75c | 127.53$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 28c | 114.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 77c | 103$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 69c | 93.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 35c | 86.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 73c | 85.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 71c | 84.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 19c | 80.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…bb9abacked Yes | 69c | 78.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…191fbacked Yes | 26c | 77.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 25c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.09 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 21c | 62.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 39 | 5.1%2 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 58.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.46 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 60c | 57.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 74c | 46.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 52c | 40.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…8590backed Yes | 76c | 35.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed No | 53c | 35.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 65c | 34.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…41c9backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…ca50backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…c2e8backed Yes | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…1f27backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 73c | 19.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?this page
- Will 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI DirectorNo won
- Will 50 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Yes won
- Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 55 or more senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will fewer than 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.