Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f824f822ec9383c092c0ef30de86ff168aafdaa282a6f79d9421b71818566c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e72…9938backed Yes | 13c | 2,241$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.49 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,681$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,405$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.86 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,383$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.3 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 10c | 1,358$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.4 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 12c | 1,264$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.21 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 21c | 900$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 833.15$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.51 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 48c | 670.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.48 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 5c | 631$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.01 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 8c | 561$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.83 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 6c | 550.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 16c | 550$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…8e7fbacked Yes | 21c | 476.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 6c | 383.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 27c | 371$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 7c | 361$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.2 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 7c | 300.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.87 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed No | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 26c | 230$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.25 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 181.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.1 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 11c | 181.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.28 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 175$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 72c | 171$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.93 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 167.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 12c | 146.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.57 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes | 16c | 126.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 33c | 122.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…191fbacked Yes | 19c | 106.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +137.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 104.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 29c | 92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 74c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?this page
- Will 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI DirectorNo won
- Will 50 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 55 or more senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will fewer than 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.