Us Midterms · resolved market
Will 50 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18633f3568c239545b0f3a6b7f8148b1caa89a08f937febcac3d5b9acd771676
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $161,156
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,156 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 1c | 115,093$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,561$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1424…2e03backed Yes | 5c | 2,667$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes | 2c | 2,167$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 20c | 1,504$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.93 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,410$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.6 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 5c | 1,216$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 5c | 1,172$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 13c | 1,072$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.31 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 8c | 1,056$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.81 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 78c | 999.98$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 796$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 2c | 703$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 684.37$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 602.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 23c | 543.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked Yes | 7c | 463.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 4c | 378.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…8e7fbacked Yes | 30c | 335.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 16c | 320$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 17c | 318.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 203.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 73c | 189.3$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.7 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 28c | 160$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 71c | 103.47$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1460…b3ddbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 17c | 96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked No | 74c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 25c | 59.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 58.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51d7…c725backed Yes | 20c | 53.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +900%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 38c | 39.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 50 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?this page
- Will 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI DirectorNo won
- Will 51 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?Yes won
- Will 52 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 53 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 54 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will 55 or more senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
- Will fewer than 49 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.