Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac7162f96876ea602d984de6f9800b8a4b8a45897e798a7630d9e004ae5b9a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,258,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,976,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,258,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 725 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f2d…39a8backed Yes | 1c | 500,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 11c | 498,018$56,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,010.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…6af8backed Yes | 1c | 212,587$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…64a4backed Yes | 11c | 128,368$13,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,488.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3239…b16dbacked Yes | 1c | 118,438$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4569…c0d3backed Yes | 22c | 113,043$24,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,867.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…8a4abacked Yes | 1c | 107,347$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 3c | 101,963$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,117.87 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce86…c0cebacked Yes | 26c | 96,132$24,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,994.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3e…d1cfbacked Yes | 1c | 95,519$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 19c | 93,427$17,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,501.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed Yes | 7c | 92,296$6,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,263.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c32…3945backed Yes | 3c | 86,790$2,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,850 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c9…7187backed Yes | 5c | 86,230$4,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,471.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…b79abacked Yes | 13c | 81,433$10,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,866.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 75c | 73,464$54,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,533.01 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49db…2019backed Yes | 5c | 70,977$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes | 16c | 67,415$10,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,488.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e7…5dd6backed Yes | 1c | 65,276$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…8315backed Yes | 12c | 64,693$7,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,856.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…e537backed Yes | 2c | 58,256$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…3bfcbacked Yes | 6c | 55,551$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,471.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…227abacked Yes | 17c | 54,100$9,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,385.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 18c | 53,544$9,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,772.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8489…208dbacked Yes | 11c | 52,128$5,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,584.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…0ce4backed Yes | 18c | 51,830$9,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,181.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50aa…143dbacked Yes | 1c | 50,492$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Yes | 1c | 47,341$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…c21bbacked Yes | 17c | 46,074$7,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,805.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3c…1b01backed Yes | 25c | 44,977$11,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,332 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 1c | 43,227$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.81 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed Yes | 25c | 42,467$10,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,535.61 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 24c | 41,996$10,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,028.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes | 15c | 39,877$6,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,071.56 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c7…c51abacked Yes | 11c | 39,200$4,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6552…e069backed Yes | 28c | 35,134$9,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,938.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 74c | 35,000$25,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,265 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e7…807fbacked Yes | 3c | 34,443$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 12c | 34,150$3,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,991.8 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…6edcbacked Yes | 10c | 34,090$3,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,241.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…5929backed Yes | 16c | 33,449$5,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,375 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 3c | 32,913$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.3 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd11…e918backed Yes | 21c | 31,397$6,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,464.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…0adbbacked Yes | 22c | 27,940$6,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,241.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 1c | 26,894$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9562…0f46backed Yes | 8c | 26,179$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…6d88backed Yes | 14c | 26,120$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 76c | 25,795$19,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,070.59 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…fcf5backed Yes | 10c | 25,008$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579e…eda1backed Yes | 5c | 24,803$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…66fdbacked Yes | 12c | 24,674$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 11c | 24,618$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,663.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…1ff1backed Yes | 0c | 23,004$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 6c | 22,980$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.97 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…d932backed Yes | 2c | 22,976$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 12c | 22,465$2,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,701.91 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc784…25e5backed Yes | 9c | 22,202$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 20c | 22,178$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,455.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…28ccbacked No | 77c | 21,899$16,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,136.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…f2cdbacked Yes | 9c | 21,819$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7b…3537backed Yes | 8c | 21,536$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,693.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed Yes | 6c | 20,989$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1a…4868backed Yes | 16c | 20,475$3,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,301.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 1c | 20,382$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3426…c7b7backed Yes | 9c | 20,182$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,866.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 9c | 20,158$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 5c | 20,070$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 11c | 20,000$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc942…8e4cbacked Yes | 3c | 19,088$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 16c | 18,703$3,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac55…61f7backed Yes | 1c | 18,524$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 74c | 18,096$13,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,708.93 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…7818backed Yes | 1c | 18,054$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…2f33backed Yes | 5c | 17,686$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6e…5727backed No | 78c | 17,191$13,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,790.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0688…d67dbacked Yes | 25c | 17,076$4,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,220.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 2c | 17,075$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…7b47backed Yes | 26c | 17,005$4,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,421.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa1…3455backed Yes | 5c | 16,907$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…3e17backed Yes | 1c | 16,814$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 13c | 16,786$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,209.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 12c | 16,745$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.23 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…c8cfbacked Yes | 10c | 16,667$1,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,732.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 79c | 16,281$12,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,418.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked Yes | 10c | 16,182$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…dd8fbacked Yes | 6c | 15,527$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…b063backed Yes | 11c | 15,292$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 15c | 15,175$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…fdecbacked Yes | 1c | 15,144$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed Yes | 20c | 15,088$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…acf7backed Yes | 10c | 15,033$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da7…4c8cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,025$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…61cbbacked Yes | 10c | 15,022$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 17c | 15,000$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…37b2backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…6f38backed Yes | 15c | 14,993$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,207.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…f9edbacked Yes | 4c | 14,782$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…bca8backed Yes | 7c | 14,601$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…61e6backed Yes | 16c | 14,354$2,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,366.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 16c | 14,276$2,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,321.23 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.