Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa059663a859bac52841660e1fc2ed3fc247f04f549e3fb306c531527a76514ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,982,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $571,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,982,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b12…3196backed Yes | 0c | 106,362$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdca…1f0bbacked Yes | 0c | 101,627$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…0218backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…68f8backed Yes | 0c | 97,647$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…0ea1backed Yes | 0c | 96,684$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356c…8030backed Yes | 0c | 90,874$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…e2b8backed Yes | 0c | 85,096$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…4c75backed Yes | 0c | 85,064$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…1b8fbacked Yes | 0c | 81,196$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…3dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 75,402$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…bb47backed Yes | 0c | 69,576$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7221…21c0backed Yes | 0c | 51,199$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff1…a752backed Yes | 0c | 48,294$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…a0d2backed Yes | 0c | 47,315$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf973…6800backed Yes | 0c | 46,320$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6550…dba2backed Yes | 0c | 41,871$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 0c | 33,748$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9626…3e46backed Yes | 0c | 31,923$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…9717backed Yes | 0c | 31,767$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…46ccbacked Yes | 0c | 30,960$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…1267backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678c…af9ebacked Yes | 0c | 29,981$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…9d36backed Yes | 0c | 29,795$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…7806backed Yes | 0c | 28,890$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…e6c4backed Yes | 0c | 28,291$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1379…2f35backed Yes | 0c | 28,039$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6c…21b6backed Yes | 0c | 27,028$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698d…26cfbacked Yes | 0c | 27,028$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc25b…3014backed Yes | 0c | 26,945$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…7809backed Yes | 0c | 26,445$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…4ecfbacked Yes | 0c | 26,445$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cf…ed3fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,945$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd557…468abacked Yes | 0c | 25,746$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad73…d4dcbacked Yes | 0c | 25,745$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff2…bf2cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,701$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…66adbacked Yes | 0c | 25,690$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdc…5289backed Yes | 0c | 25,446$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3b3abacked Yes | 0c | 25,445$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…788dbacked Yes | 0c | 25,246$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,235$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1125…b000backed Yes | 0c | 24,091$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…0510backed Yes | 0c | 24,075$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…f1dcbacked Yes | 0c | 23,695$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…959fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,495$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2641backed Yes | 0c | 23,112$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…147bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,991$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf310…be27backed Yes | 0c | 22,745$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…48d1backed Yes | 0c | 22,364$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b4…77b1backed Yes | 0c | 22,334$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f3…3dcebacked Yes | 0c | 22,266$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…b80fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,149$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c0…7ac6backed Yes | 0c | 22,149$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf351…a5c6backed Yes | 0c | 22,149$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f29…0c2cbacked Yes | 0c | 22,141$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…3086backed Yes | 0c | 21,186$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…4ef4backed Yes | 0c | 21,186$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…5bb4backed Yes | 0c | 21,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x585a…8222backed Yes | 0c | 20,935$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…d8dabacked Yes | 0c | 20,828$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5b…e994backed Yes | 0c | 20,346$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b94…e52fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,046$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9e…87c9backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda4…f057backed Yes | 0c | 19,626$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…6dccbacked Yes | 0c | 19,522$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…1292backed Yes | 0c | 19,260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…8880backed Yes | 0c | 19,222$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dae…2095backed Yes | 0c | 19,088$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…cd1dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,922$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x836c…290abacked Yes | 0c | 18,922$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a40…b39ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,844$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3733…6e58backed Yes | 0c | 18,843$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…b4f8backed Yes | 0c | 18,843$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…0587backed Yes | 0c | 18,843$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…eb76backed Yes | 0c | 18,790$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929c…a976backed Yes | 0c | 18,790$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd32…5b40backed Yes | 0c | 18,763$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea26…ab42backed Yes | 0c | 18,737$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1564…e76abacked Yes | 0c | 18,297$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…8457backed Yes | 0c | 17,569$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f09…19cbbacked Yes | 0c | 17,334$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e19…8435backed Yes | 0c | 17,300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…0a7cbacked Yes | 0c | 16,371$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2a…148abacked Yes | 0c | 16,371$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…6837backed Yes | 0c | 16,026$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb336…b065backed Yes | 0c | 15,996$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa472…2009backed Yes | 0c | 15,907$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…2e36backed Yes | 0c | 15,758$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…a45bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…09b0backed Yes | 0c | 15,265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75be…3b80backed Yes | 0c | 15,265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5269…20e7backed Yes | 0c | 15,265$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…da63backed Yes | 0c | 14,846$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…aad7backed Yes | 0c | 14,445$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…983bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,253$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd345…7961backed Yes | 0c | 14,048$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2a…024bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,948$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…e212backed Yes | 0c | 13,947$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7636…aba9backed Yes | 0c | 13,947$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.