TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,982,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$571,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,982,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b12…3196backed Yes0c106,362$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdca…1f0bbacked Yes0c101,627$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba6…0218backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8d…68f8backed Yes0c97,647$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8891…0ea1backed Yes0c96,684$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x356c…8030backed Yes0c90,874$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc304…e2b8backed Yes0c85,096$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33c0…4c75backed Yes0c85,064$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b46…1b8fbacked Yes0c81,196$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe97…3dbfbacked Yes0c75,402$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3832…bb47backed Yes0c69,576$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7221…21c0backed Yes0c51,199$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff1…a752backed Yes0c48,294$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b9…a0d2backed Yes0c47,315$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf973…6800backed Yes0c46,320$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6550…dba2backed Yes0c41,871$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes0c33,748$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.57731.2%24 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9626…3e46backed Yes0c31,923$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58b…9717backed Yes0c31,767$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7808…46ccbacked Yes0c30,960$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb75…1267backed Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x678c…af9ebacked Yes0c29,981$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b3…9d36backed Yes0c29,795$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5588…7806backed Yes0c28,890$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d5…e6c4backed Yes0c28,291$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1379…2f35backed Yes0c28,039$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e6c…21b6backed Yes0c27,028$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x698d…26cfbacked Yes0c27,028$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc25b…3014backed Yes0c26,945$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…7809backed Yes0c26,445$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd181…4ecfbacked Yes0c26,445$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93cf…ed3fbacked Yes0c25,945$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd557…468abacked Yes0c25,746$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad73…d4dcbacked Yes0c25,745$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff2…bf2cbacked Yes0c25,701$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4b…66adbacked Yes0c25,690$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfdc…5289backed Yes0c25,446$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b97…3b3abacked Yes0c25,445$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3ec…788dbacked Yes0c25,246$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c25,235$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.661320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1125…b000backed Yes0c24,091$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…0510backed Yes0c24,075$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…f1dcbacked Yes0c23,695$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31fc…959fbacked Yes0c23,495$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6684…2641backed Yes0c23,112$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e0…147bbacked Yes0c22,991$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf310…be27backed Yes0c22,745$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd417…48d1backed Yes0c22,364$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b4…77b1backed Yes0c22,334$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f3…3dcebacked Yes0c22,266$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b3f…b80fbacked Yes0c22,149$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98c0…7ac6backed Yes0c22,149$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf351…a5c6backed Yes0c22,149$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f29…0c2cbacked Yes0c22,141$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9794…3086backed Yes0c21,186$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2003…4ef4backed Yes0c21,186$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x316c…5bb4backed Yes0c21,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585a…8222backed Yes0c20,935$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa834…d8dabacked Yes0c20,828$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5b…e994backed Yes0c20,346$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b94…e52fbacked Yes0c20,046$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb9e…87c9backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda4…f057backed Yes0c19,626$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08b5…6dccbacked Yes0c19,522$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcce7…1292backed Yes0c19,260$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3193…8880backed Yes0c19,222$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dae…2095backed Yes0c19,088$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07f1…cd1dbacked Yes0c18,922$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x836c…290abacked Yes0c18,922$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a40…b39ebacked Yes0c18,844$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3733…6e58backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848b…b4f8backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29df…0587backed Yes0c18,843$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01fb…eb76backed Yes0c18,790$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929c…a976backed Yes0c18,790$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd32…5b40backed Yes0c18,763$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea26…ab42backed Yes0c18,737$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1564…e76abacked Yes0c18,297$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e2…8457backed Yes0c17,569$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f09…19cbbacked Yes0c17,334$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e19…8435backed Yes0c17,300$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0e…0a7cbacked Yes0c16,371$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2a…148abacked Yes0c16,371$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990e…6837backed Yes0c16,026$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb336…b065backed Yes0c15,996$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa472…2009backed Yes0c15,907$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf03b…2e36backed Yes0c15,758$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb38e…a45bbacked Yes0c15,265$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eec…09b0backed Yes0c15,265$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75be…3b80backed Yes0c15,265$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5269…20e7backed Yes0c15,265$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x760b…26ecbacked Yes0c15,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40200%0 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1d…da63backed Yes0c14,846$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…aad7backed Yes0c14,445$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076d…983bbacked Yes0c14,253$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd345…7961backed Yes0c14,048$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b2a…024bbacked Yes0c13,948$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebfd…e212backed Yes0c13,947$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7636…aba9backed Yes0c13,947$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.