Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb17631413f217b33763f011a61990dd420f760af13bba6cdccd68c52b2b72d4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,754,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,066,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,754,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f2d…39a8backed No | 1c | 449,999$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,499.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f5…227abacked No | 18c | 174,955$31,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,587.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…cee6backed No | 4c | 126,869$4,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,851.3 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 1c | 124,049$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.41 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 9c | 99,366$9,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,045.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 9c | 95,035$8,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,946.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 12c | 69,264$8,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,481.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…1ff1backed No | 0c | 57,843$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a85…7905backed No | 21c | 54,555$11,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,633.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e1…670bbacked No | 1c | 50,752$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked No | 3c | 49,965$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x638b…f7b9backed No | 1c | 47,354$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 10c | 41,400$3,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,988.47 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 3c | 32,789$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.51 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed47…6af8backed No | 2c | 31,993$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…9df8backed No | 24c | 30,000$7,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,139 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…53c9backed No | 2c | 28,540$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 25c | 26,415$6,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,596.16 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 14c | 26,375$3,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,580.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 80c | 25,808$20,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,187.82 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecee…ae39backed Yes | 80c | 25,051$19,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,053.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed No | 14c | 25,000$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.41 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…c8cfbacked No | 13c | 24,871$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,119 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 7c | 22,820$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.21 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…7b47backed No | 16c | 21,043$3,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,322.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…bf17backed No | 7c | 20,933$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 11c | 20,024$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.71 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…ae0dbacked No | 8c | 18,528$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 17c | 18,319$3,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,105.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf440…2747backed No | 9c | 18,276$1,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,618.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 12c | 18,162$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.58 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6d…212ebacked No | 12c | 17,738$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed No | 9c | 17,669$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9179…65a6backed No | 1c | 17,081$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 73c | 16,969$12,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,601.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…624bbacked No | 9c | 16,825$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce6…26bdbacked No | 1c | 16,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf47…cf0abacked No | 1c | 15,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…dd8fbacked No | 11c | 14,291$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed No | 7c | 13,875$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.18 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2aa…721abacked No | 9c | 13,160$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 18c | 13,094$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.24 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed Yes | 74c | 13,000$9,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 23c | 12,753$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,992.99 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61a9…d092backed No | 6c | 12,697$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.54 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ad…3e17backed No | 1c | 12,484$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…741bbacked No | 15c | 12,074$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c7…28ccbacked Yes | 77c | 10,560$8,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,431.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…5f6fbacked No | 6c | 10,359$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 76c | 10,163$7,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.18 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d9ebbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked No | 8c | 10,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 14c | 9,971$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 9,827$1,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.56 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…9d01backed No | 2c | 9,560$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 5c | 9,113$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.17 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…e537backed Yes | 75c | 8,952$6,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes | 80c | 8,559$6,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed No | 24c | 8,274$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…61cbbacked No | 10c | 8,153$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 8,037$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.28 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked No | 0c | 8,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0a…6fc4backed No | 18c | 7,992$1,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,403.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…cdaebacked No | 13c | 7,815$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4981…d9f9backed Yes | 75c | 7,638$5,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…9ae0backed No | 13c | 7,454$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed No | 23c | 7,000$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c8…0115backed No | 1c | 6,969$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Yes | 74c | 6,781$5,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1949…515ebacked Yes | 78c | 6,523$5,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba2c…594bbacked No | 6c | 6,285$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 1c | 6,198$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 73c | 6,066$4,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.44 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…f6fbbacked No | 0c | 5,993$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 76c | 5,989$4,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.26 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked No | 25c | 5,929$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.62 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 26c | 5,850$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8055…44c4backed No | 11c | 5,755$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f6…8303backed No | 1c | 5,750$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 75c | 5,441$4,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 16c | 5,162$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.2 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155e…60e3backed No | 1c | 5,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…ea9abacked No | 1c | 5,100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…38f4backed No | 2c | 5,070$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9562…0f46backed No | 6c | 5,002$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…37debacked No | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 10c | 5,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe318…bc12backed No | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653c…627ebacked No | 4c | 4,928$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 8c | 4,717$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.79 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf5…1138backed Yes | 76c | 4,513$3,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34f…bf58backed Yes | 73c | 4,500$3,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 79c | 4,382$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 11c | 4,318$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 50c | 4,024$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…d9bbbacked No | 4c | 4,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…4826backed No | 13c | 3,985$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…e0e3backed No | 19c | 3,809$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 17c | 3,800$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.3 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?No won
- Will a candidate from another party win Arizona US Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.