Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,070,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,863,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,070,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,760 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 35c | 185,002$64,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120,800.04 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 36c | 158,000$56,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101,199.81 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 2c | 89,401$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.1 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked No | 63c | 65,000$40,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,049.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Yes | 35c | 64,059$22,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,346.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 73c | 62,342$45,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,915.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 63c | 57,367$35,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,481.9 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…3f38backed Yes | 66c | 52,387$34,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,572.39 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…7f1ebacked Yes | 68c | 51,917$35,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,110.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 80c | 48,471$38,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,905.37 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 64c | 48,034$30,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,541.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 50c | 44,718$22,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,343.81 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes | 66c | 43,136$28,405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,405 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed Yes | 2c | 42,523$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…971abacked Yes | 51c | 40,795$20,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,633.36 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…338abacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes | 43c | 35,334$15,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,197.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc322…3f23backed Yes | 45c | 34,265$15,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,419.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked No | 69c | 32,763$22,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,230.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…111abacked Yes | 0c | 31,969$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 37c | 31,840$11,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,871.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…6e9bbacked Yes | 1c | 28,253$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked No | 61c | 26,667$16,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,405.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eea…cb72backed Yes | 40c | 25,898$10,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,371.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 74c | 25,379$18,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,879.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa641…740cbacked Yes | 1c | 25,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 24,240$14,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,461.22 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 29c | 24,194$7,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,128.88 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 25c | 23,332$5,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,384.97 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked No | 53c | 23,184$12,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,831 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f7…5d56backed Yes | 2c | 23,107$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a5…0713backed Yes | 1c | 22,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes | 75c | 22,175$16,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,541.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 21,945$3,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,508.23 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,004$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 61c | 20,000$12,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,889.99 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x498a…5e7bbacked Yes | 44c | 20,000$8,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,759.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56eb…076abacked No | 55c | 19,948$11,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,877.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed No | 40c | 19,641$7,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,830.58 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed No | 62c | 19,012$11,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,224.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…c4b7backed Yes | 1c | 18,704$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca09…ab3abacked Yes | 1c | 18,404$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d7…026fbacked Yes | 26c | 16,684$4,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,376.96 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 75c | 16,286$12,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,214.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 56c | 16,074$8,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,086.04 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…f66ebacked Yes | 43c | 15,978$6,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,910.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…6ff6backed Yes | 0c | 15,782$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4692…8f05backed Yes | 15c | 15,620$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,290.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 60c | 15,451$9,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,112.08 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 23c | 15,290$3,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,451.36 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515e…8309backed Yes | 66c | 15,000$9,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…8bbebacked Yes | 57c | 14,323$8,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,118.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 71c | 14,182$10,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,181.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed No | 33c | 14,024$4,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,345.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…ea89backed No | 30c | 14,000$4,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,778.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…02b6backed Yes | 11c | 13,341$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f4…c1f1backed Yes | 37c | 13,199$4,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,883.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 30c | 13,107$3,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,966.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65e…afadbacked Yes | 40c | 13,002$5,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,261.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 34c | 12,772$4,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,480.3 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…f0a0backed Yes | 70c | 12,717$8,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,901.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 41c | 12,658$5,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,413.46 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…a5d6backed Yes | 5c | 12,650$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7160…f574backed Yes | 66c | 12,562$8,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,326.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…5ffebacked Yes | 39c | 12,445$4,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,853.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 71c | 12,300$8,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,741.36 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked Yes | 43c | 12,271$5,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,315.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 47c | 12,038$5,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,362.76 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 61c | 11,768$7,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,135.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 66c | 11,215$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,400.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…0ab8backed Yes | 1c | 11,051$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 26c | 10,897$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…c61abacked Yes | 65c | 10,742$6,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,990.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1518…2652backed Yes | 47c | 10,640$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…bbe7backed Yes | 1c | 10,337$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…1d43backed Yes | 76c | 10,255$7,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,819.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…3f7ebacked Yes | 59c | 10,158$5,992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,992.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…075dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,155$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb848…275cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,016$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…a494backed Yes | 42c | 10,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e3…b7debacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…0872backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 26c | 10,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,350 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked Yes | 46c | 9,644$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,462.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db6…9842backed Yes | 1c | 9,527$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…4d42backed No | 61c | 9,459$5,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…eb12backed Yes | 28c | 9,329$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 34c | 9,000$3,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,923.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…648dbacked No | 58c | 9,000$5,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,769.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 59c | 9,000$5,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,652.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cff…6051backed Yes | 5c | 8,900$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Yes | 61c | 8,723$5,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,339.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce14…e38fbacked Yes | 12c | 8,536$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 38c | 8,452$3,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,208.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 29c | 8,138$2,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,751.08 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd929…168cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,001$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 5c | 8,000$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…fd17backed Yes | 62c | 7,880$4,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,870.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?this page
- Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?Yes won
- Will Robert Wells Jr. be the Republican nominee for KY-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.