Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x652002aa13ba253abd033a6a7d06457fe2a08309c7c5324598d677624cdabec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,559,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,526,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,559,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 911 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 180,157$14,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,539.82 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 7c | 65,048$4,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336.22 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 50,521$30,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,194.41 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…111abacked No | 0c | 48,081$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 48c | 45,750$22,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,003.18 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…4c1abacked No | 18c | 38,827$7,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,091.03 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 32c | 35,616$11,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,523.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 47c | 34,581$16,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,234.18 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee17…6ea1backed Yes | 61c | 29,328$17,948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,379.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfad9…bdbdbacked No | 11c | 28,915$3,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,258.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 29c | 24,831$7,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,097.61 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 28c | 24,516$6,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,812.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…a873backed No | 1c | 23,430$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked No | 57c | 21,641$12,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,388.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…971abacked No | 55c | 20,706$11,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,295.1 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…7f1ebacked No | 62c | 20,555$12,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,768.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…4958backed No | 0c | 18,690$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes | 29c | 17,252$5,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,229.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed Yes | 46c | 13,818$6,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,465.81 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 37c | 12,106$4,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,569.51 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 35c | 11,323$3,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,386.11 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…31f1backed Yes | 69c | 10,646$7,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,344.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8d…edbebacked No | 1c | 10,600$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 41c | 10,478$4,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,169.28 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 64c | 10,220$6,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d65…3781backed No | 1c | 10,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed No | 22c | 9,806$2,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,183.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…5de4backed Yes | 34c | 9,791$3,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,421.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +190.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 35c | 9,628$3,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,272.35 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked No | 9c | 9,397$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 42c | 8,660$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,650.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…38debacked No | 1c | 8,250$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked No | 66c | 8,159$5,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,402.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc39…8ad8backed No | 41c | 7,996$3,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,267.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 40c | 7,843$3,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,717.18 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 29c | 7,798$2,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,538.17 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…86c7backed No | 1c | 7,738$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 33c | 7,425$2,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,989.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 7,408$3,346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,345.51 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff8…68ebbacked Yes | 60c | 7,284$4,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,912.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 7,000$4,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.02 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…755ebacked No | 1c | 6,977$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 55c | 6,673$3,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…afe7backed Yes | 61c | 6,514$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.36 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 31c | 6,329$1,991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,337.7 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 29c | 6,243$1,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,447.85 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 32c | 6,125$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,165.46 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed Yes | 59c | 6,088$3,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,523.24 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…47cebacked Yes | 53c | 5,991$3,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,829.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 44c | 5,561$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.69 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd5…9f12backed Yes | 34c | 5,484$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,646.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 65c | 5,440$3,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…def8backed No | 3c | 5,393$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…b9e0backed Yes | 62c | 5,337$3,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,025.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 61c | 5,200$3,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 49c | 5,109$2,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b6…f62cbacked No | 40c | 5,048$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 40c | 4,952$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.38 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5234…4c4fbacked Yes | 63c | 4,868$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,801.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 59c | 4,820$2,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.29 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 32c | 4,703$1,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177.04 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 66c | 4,558$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…f0adbacked No | 42c | 4,500$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…ca07backed No | 28c | 4,475$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…8793backed No | 1c | 4,473$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…eb12backed No | 30c | 4,280$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…88a7backed No | 9c | 4,279$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 42c | 4,239$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 38c | 4,195$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…388ebacked No | 1c | 4,101$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 48c | 4,099$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,984.69 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3c…08a0backed Yes | 60c | 4,065$2,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 60c | 4,057$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 36c | 4,008$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.29 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 52c | 4,000$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c62…3bb8backed No | 1c | 3,889$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed No | 44c | 3,845$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.95 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 13c | 3,834$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.97 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…8d7abacked No | 31c | 3,832$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…911ebacked No | 38c | 3,688$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7664…2e50backed Yes | 31c | 3,639$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…562abacked No | 1c | 3,636$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…0805backed No | 4c | 3,634$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 37c | 3,538$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.99 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 61c | 3,500$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,354.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 63c | 3,411$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 62c | 3,353$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.96 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 61c | 3,259$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.69 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…dcf6backed Yes | 62c | 3,223$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 38c | 3,057$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.31 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed No | 30c | 3,042$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…9957backed No | 41c | 3,025$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed Yes | 63c | 3,024$1,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c77…4d42backed Yes | 62c | 2,944$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed No | 40c | 2,870$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.89 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +158.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…bfddbacked No | 1c | 2,848$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe657…89a5backed Yes | 59c | 2,760$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbd…784abacked No | 39c | 2,692$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?this page
- Will Robert Wells Jr. be the Republican nominee for KY-04?No won
- Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.