Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf561223517565f676701a566c17c4f460cfc5bf7d437dc4cc9ba194c4c099509
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0447…3cd9backed Yes | 53c | 18,388$9,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,818.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…1614backed Yes | 3c | 17,391$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.04 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…ccbcbacked Yes | 6c | 5,717$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 29c | 5,129$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.91 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 33c | 3,040$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,642$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,608$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 497 | 11.5%57 W · 440 L | -17.8wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 2,052$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 140 | 19.3%27 W · 113 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 31c | 1,500$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 30c | 1,494$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.99 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 5c | 1,347$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,084$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,016$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 890.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 81 | 6.2%5 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 77c | 878.65$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.52 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 32c | 800$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 18c | 750.61$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.35 | 63 | 22.2%14 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 745.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 75c | 720.99$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.25 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 33c | 700$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…f8c9backed Yes | 5c | 699.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 40c | 689.12$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.08 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 675.04$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.22 | 115 | 22.6%26 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 24c | 628.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 4c | 611.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 552.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed No | 70c | 537$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…6688backed Yes | 5c | 500.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 40c | 500$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 74c | 461.36$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 445.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 355.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 6c | 339.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 25c | 299.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Yes | 7c | 253.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36ab…e4e7backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…7772backed Yes | 40c | 247.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 238.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…0203backed Yes | 50c | 200.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…6316backed Yes | 10c | 195.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc2…0713backed Yes | 23c | 186.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 20c | 182.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 12c | 149.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 135$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 40c | 124.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…3307backed Yes | 14c | 113.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes | 34c | 111.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 46c | 98.39$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 71c | 96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 49c | 81.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 155 | 31%48 W · 107 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…8dfebacked Yes | 28c | 63.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 31c | 62.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 64c | 59.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 58.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 58.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf8…2094backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…3605backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 32.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 50c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will Josh Kimbrell win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.