Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x318b222c1435b47c338e66ca6001f782711186a488ae7b7248f7edc6ff076a83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 9c | 22,091$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.48 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 79c | 19,913$15,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,204.94 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 11c | 9,465$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.82 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…4382backed Yes | 20c | 8,817$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,769.71 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…025ebacked Yes | 34c | 7,655$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,618.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 79c | 7,561$5,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…2d99backed No | 76c | 6,815$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,615.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 4,712$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…8ec7backed Yes | 0c | 4,291$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 15c | 3,884$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 33cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 5c | 3,642$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…e75abacked Yes | 0c | 3,534$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 3,105$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.92 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…0643backed Yes | 18c | 2,410$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f6…b528backed Yes | 4c | 2,406$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 1,917$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.36 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c58…01aebacked No | 68c | 1,905$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,815$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Yes | 2c | 1,813$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 25c | 1,807$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.57 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d85…4df9backed Yes | 15c | 1,579$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4578…c54abacked Yes | 9c | 1,406$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.52 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…7737backed Yes | 20c | 1,303$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 69c | 1,203$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.02 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked No | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes | 38c | 1,182$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 8c | 1,085$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.04 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 1,081$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a7c4backed Yes | 21c | 1,049$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.8 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No | 73c | 1,039$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.39 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,017$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8f…d077backed Yes | 31c | 993.7$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.09 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -48%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ff…7beabacked Yes | 7c | 977.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 16c | 960.52$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 17c | 949$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 888.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.02 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 17c | 868.78$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9b…7606backed Yes | 15c | 853.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…8ef7backed Yes | 11c | 800$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 8c | 798.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa635…8530backed Yes | 24c | 783.51$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 4c | 750.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -8.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 7c | 743.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes | 8c | 730.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6388…f668backed Yes | 16c | 710$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 14c | 703$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 16c | 679$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…6f57backed Yes | 18c | 666.67$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes | 14c | 648$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 623.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 602.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed Yes | 14c | 597$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 4c | 565.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 547.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e2…c2ccbacked Yes | 17c | 512.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes | 6c | 511.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 19c | 510$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes | 19c | 507.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dde…94c3backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 34c | 497.77$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 11c | 478.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c0…b919backed Yes | 14c | 464$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 458.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…d1e3backed Yes | 16c | 456.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 70c | 434$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…13ccbacked Yes | 15c | 429$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…678bbacked No | 64c | 413.66$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…eec4backed Yes | 5c | 410.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab2…1888backed Yes | 21c | 403.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x334a…832ebacked Yes | 13c | 401$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 17c | 396$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 393.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 17c | 392$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes | 8c | 390.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 25c | 382.61$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 79c | 380.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd63b…9c25backed Yes | 20c | 378.96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…696fbacked Yes | 11c | 370$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…4fa1backed Yes | 25c | 362.1$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 360.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7e…79a2backed Yes | 24c | 359.33$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d0…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 359.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…6a84backed Yes | 10c | 350.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9205…d9f4backed Yes | 20c | 336.96$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 10c | 324$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 7c | 303.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed Yes | 33c | 302.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f83…e17ebacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee0…baefbacked Yes | 33c | 299.76$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc280…de71backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 68c | 286$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73db…c3bbbacked Yes | 22c | 285.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 16c | 279$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0145…fa69backed Yes | 9c | 278.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb174…d896backed Yes | 34c | 264.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 15c | 254$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.