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Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,999 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes9c22,091$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,915.4839522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No79c19,913$15,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,204.948450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes11c9,465$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.827646.1%35 W · 41 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4b…4382backed Yes20c8,817$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.712227.3%6 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…025ebacked Yes34c7,655$2,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.332937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No79c7,561$5,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5746634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb82…2d99backed No76c6,815$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.22343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c4,712$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f7…8ec7backed Yes0c4,291$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes15c3,884$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick33cpaid-90.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes5c3,642$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.23511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81fa…e75abacked Yes0c3,534$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes3c3,358$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c3,105$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes18c2,410$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4292544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09f6…b528backed Yes4c2,406$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes14c1,917$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.3613537.8%51 W · 84 L-0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c58…01aebacked No68c1,905$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.71020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,815$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.81,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19ed…6dc8backed Yes2c1,813$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes25c1,807$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.5737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d85…4df9backed Yes15c1,579$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.493268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+46.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4578…c54abacked Yes9c1,406$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.521952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+26.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62f8…7737backed Yes20c1,303$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.54969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+44.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No69c1,203$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.025442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked No64c1,200$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4321154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17aa…cb3dbacked Yes38c1,182$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-74.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Yes8c1,085$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.044936.7%18 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes7c1,081$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.43385.3%2 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba0…a7c4backed Yes21c1,049$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.82962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked No73c1,039$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.392653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes12c1,017$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.0210135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8f…d077backed Yes31c993.7$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.091526.7%4 W · 11 L-5.0wins-0.33per pick60cpaid-48%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa0ff…7beabacked Yes7c977.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes16c960.52$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes17c949$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes8c888.6$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.023423.5%8 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+28.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd74d…85e9backed Yes17c868.78$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.081625%4 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+16.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed Yes15c853.92$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.632657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ad…8ef7backed Yes11c800$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…b4f5backed Yes8c798.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.22180%0 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa635…8530backed Yes24c783.51$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.06850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes4c750.03$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.387119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x932b…64c0backed Yes7c743.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.82832.1%9 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+130.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a7…d2ccbacked Yes8c730.16$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60313.2%1 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick18cpaid-91.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6388…f668backed Yes16c710$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes14c703$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes16c679$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x946b…6f57backed Yes18c666.67$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+45.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Yes14c648$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c623.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.271343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c602.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.54787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1923125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed Yes14c597$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked Yes4c565.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.811421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-0.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c547.76$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.045710.5%6 W · 51 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+75.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95e2…c2ccbacked Yes17c512.55$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aaa…17b6backed Yes6c511.04$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9156…5932backed Yes19c510$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.87825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes19c507.46$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dde…94c3backed No67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1653161.3%19 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked Yes19c499.99$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked Yes34c497.77$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.42933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf769…0114backed Yes11c478.34$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.39911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93c0…b919backed Yes14c464$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes3c458.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7088…d1e3backed Yes16c456.75$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No70c434$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.344650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2604…13ccbacked Yes15c429$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.35333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7014…678bbacked No64c413.66$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.92944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fd…eec4backed Yes5c410.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab2…1888backed Yes21c403.01$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x334a…832ebacked Yes13c401$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes17c396$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes11c393.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.73476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-69.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes17c392$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes8c390.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes25c382.61$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1416725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No79c380.47$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.474858.3%28 W · 20 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd63b…9c25backed Yes20c378.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc886…696fbacked Yes11c370$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd478…4fa1backed Yes25c362.1$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.981464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c360.91$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.42943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e7e…79a2backed Yes24c359.33$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.951172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+63.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x65d0…487fbacked Yes8c359.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6683…6a84backed Yes10c350.15$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9205…d9f4backed Yes20c336.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes10c324$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked Yes7c303.84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.271127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+46.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92a3…f796backed Yes33c302.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f83…e17ebacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-63.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee0…baefbacked Yes33c299.76$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed No68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.122931%9 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No68c286$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.524729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x73db…c3bbbacked Yes22c285.19$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes16c279$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0145…fa69backed Yes9c278.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb174…d896backed Yes34c264.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed Yes15c254$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.