World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f56bae1879b7336e2e77fd2955557216cd305cff2481844e799050b364a3ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,597,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,341,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,597,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes | 6c | 833,038$46,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46,328.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…9381backed Yes | 0c | 804,434$1,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,117.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 6c | 744,448$44,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,835.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec77…c2ddbacked Yes | 11c | 695,573$78,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78,257.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb266…c54cbacked Yes | 8c | 674,291$51,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51,144.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 1c | 562,533$4,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,410.68 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9790…be15backed Yes | 7c | 556,434$39,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,943.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 1c | 466,609$5,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,061.88 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…e832backed Yes | 7c | 376,832$25,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,679.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed Yes | 1c | 376,463$2,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,445.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 3c | 285,882$9,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,439.64 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes | 6c | 251,288$14,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,975.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 7c | 211,669$14,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,746.79 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 8c | 209,755$16,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,926.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…6cf6backed Yes | 5c | 198,011$9,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,721 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…a704backed Yes | 4c | 175,318$7,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,770.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd127…62d6backed Yes | 2c | 124,700$2,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,464.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Yes | 8c | 122,500$9,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,637.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes | 4c | 121,242$4,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.74 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 7c | 119,883$8,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,145.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…f15bbacked Yes | 7c | 105,375$7,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,685.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca87…8e3dbacked Yes | 8c | 105,012$8,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,606 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb18…ba45backed Yes | 12c | 103,143$11,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,987.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e3…c7f2backed Yes | 6c | 100,000$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…3c24backed Yes | 8c | 96,354$8,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,091.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes | 1c | 91,360$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Yes | 9c | 86,967$7,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,635.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1335…d426backed Yes | 4c | 72,908$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,074.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c1…abc6backed Yes | 4c | 72,882$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed Yes | 4c | 70,821$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…377abacked Yes | 6c | 70,410$3,975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,975.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…daafbacked Yes | 7c | 68,894$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,001.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff93…490dbacked Yes | 8c | 67,547$5,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,646.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 63,713$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.55 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes | 4c | 62,461$2,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,783 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…73a4backed Yes | 8c | 62,360$4,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,894.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba5…6d1bbacked Yes | 3c | 58,768$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 6c | 55,000$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…7d31backed Yes | 5c | 54,324$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…665abacked Yes | 5c | 54,051$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,574.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…7961backed Yes | 5c | 52,937$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…7520backed Yes | 3c | 52,420$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,389.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3f…11ffbacked Yes | 8c | 49,597$3,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfb…e789backed Yes | 6c | 49,462$3,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,148.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…8247backed Yes | 6c | 49,020$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 0c | 48,339$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfef6…c276backed Yes | 7c | 48,229$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…4014backed Yes | 4c | 47,617$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbca…4534backed Yes | 8c | 46,859$3,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,851.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…0283backed Yes | 7c | 45,430$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,349.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c5…4109backed Yes | 3c | 43,139$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…3ca4backed Yes | 6c | 42,923$2,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…0233backed Yes | 4c | 42,658$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 6c | 42,578$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.41 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0b…4c49backed Yes | 20c | 42,468$8,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,296.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf7…78dabacked Yes | 7c | 39,753$2,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f35…2a0bbacked Yes | 7c | 36,296$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,431.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…bc54backed Yes | 5c | 36,038$1,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,737.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1951…125bbacked Yes | 4c | 35,701$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…a9c8backed Yes | 7c | 35,166$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1707…83f6backed Yes | 2c | 34,661$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 5c | 33,486$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.72 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7122…ed7dbacked Yes | 7c | 31,759$2,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,127.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked Yes | 7c | 30,972$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…f5c3backed Yes | 3c | 30,356$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1289…4f4bbacked Yes | 0c | 30,280$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db4…410fbacked Yes | 8c | 29,655$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43d…f3fcbacked Yes | 4c | 29,386$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0210…313dbacked Yes | 4c | 28,737$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…fe87backed Yes | 7c | 28,709$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…68b8backed Yes | 3c | 27,303$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…1439backed Yes | 7c | 27,222$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f34…3f5dbacked Yes | 8c | 27,038$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b85…4be3backed Yes | 8c | 26,858$2,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes | 8c | 26,044$2,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 25,910$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.62 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…464ebacked Yes | 5c | 25,440$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…3006backed Yes | 7c | 24,701$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed Yes | 8c | 24,471$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.92 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…a75cbacked Yes | 4c | 23,440$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…2467backed Yes | 3c | 23,366$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.68 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 4c | 22,965$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…a535backed Yes | 8c | 22,833$1,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdf…73e6backed Yes | 7c | 22,685$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 5c | 22,644$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.82 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +640.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…dfb3backed Yes | 7c | 22,500$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 12c | 22,417$2,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.41 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cd…16f9backed Yes | 4c | 22,108$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 6c | 21,448$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.82 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1577…fd1abacked Yes | 5c | 21,250$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 2c | 20,895$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd863…a129backed Yes | 5c | 20,712$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 3c | 20,543$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.07 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…7182backed Yes | 3c | 20,440$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbd…d700backed Yes | 5c | 20,243$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb774…245ebacked Yes | 5c | 20,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 2c | 19,945$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…b00bbacked Yes | 12c | 19,723$2,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,361.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 5c | 19,423$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Yes | 3c | 19,215$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.