World Politics · resolved market
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1921202aa3f884b9c562a244f1e58417d93c9315e6768d27768eb3b2abc2c95b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,315,209
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,769,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,315,209 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed No | 1c | 366,485$5,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,236.69 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…b0d0backed No | 1c | 312,419$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec77…c2ddbacked No | 12c | 206,727$24,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,607.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 1c | 178,095$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.21 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 10c | 115,530$11,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,095.23 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…23dfbacked No | 3c | 78,653$2,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.67 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 51,116$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.56 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 10c | 27,980$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,698.05 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e8…dad7backed No | 14c | 27,500$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,849.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed No | 10c | 25,717$2,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,541.36 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed No | 11c | 22,117$2,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 7c | 21,090$1,476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.33 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 10c | 19,509$1,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.25 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 5c | 13,654$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.87 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf00b…9c89backed No | 4c | 11,488$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 2c | 9,640$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.7 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed No | 4c | 9,466$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.88 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bc…51fdbacked No | 3c | 9,000$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac46…c8bebacked No | 9c | 8,429$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…1580backed No | 3c | 8,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 4c | 7,871$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.3 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…3ef8backed No | 11c | 7,543$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca9…4d94backed No | 3c | 7,435$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…ce94backed No | 0c | 7,290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 11c | 6,667$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.84 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed No | 7c | 6,400$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7481…43b6backed No | 3c | 5,834$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…f68cbacked No | 9c | 5,760$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…68b8backed No | 4c | 5,517$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 5,263$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.83 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…2b93backed No | 4c | 5,090$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…1cedbacked No | 4c | 5,005$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…7b1fbacked No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed No | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 3c | 5,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…bce3backed No | 9c | 4,800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 8c | 4,419$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x193f…5acbbacked No | 7c | 4,093$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdef…f9d1backed No | 4c | 3,735$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…9e8ebacked No | 4c | 3,497$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ae…41bcbacked No | 3c | 3,212$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5da…2e71backed No | 7c | 3,097$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 2c | 3,017$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f79…0b32backed No | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed No | 8c | 2,952$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.18 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9f…95bdbacked No | 4c | 2,763$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…7a79backed No | 4c | 2,709$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9247…27e5backed No | 8c | 2,506$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21b2…d733backed No | 6c | 2,473$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked No | 9c | 2,222$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b60…f259backed No | 5c | 2,192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacd…c1ebbacked No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5182…8f84backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…372bbacked No | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…d945backed No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 4c | 1,900$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 8c | 1,812$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…f435backed Yes | 79c | 1,800$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…1b04backed No | 4c | 1,595$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…f625backed No | 8c | 1,556$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebb…eeaebacked No | 8c | 1,466$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…7c6ebacked No | 4c | 1,346$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e61…ebfdbacked No | 9c | 1,312$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…4f0bbacked No | 2c | 1,251$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5c…9fddbacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed No | 10c | 1,200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ce…78c6backed No | 10c | 1,190$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed No | 11c | 1,158$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x284a…30edbacked No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…e393backed No | 9c | 1,082$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d08…eda0backed No | 4c | 1,068$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…8d6abacked No | 5c | 1,044$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b2…fcc2backed No | 5c | 1,016$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…fc5ebacked No | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…07bebacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…6175backed No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 4c | 999.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…0981backed No | 3c | 920.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 13c | 916.15$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 10c | 830.1$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…c1efbacked No | 11c | 809.09$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4194…c107backed No | 10c | 808.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…0e1fbacked No | 9c | 765.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558a…9d5bbacked No | 4c | 747.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6565…9652backed No | 7c | 666.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8732…6cb4backed No | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 7c | 600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…eff0backed No | 2c | 571.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…f1d6backed No | 6c | 563.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…a8a3backed No | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd915…48ebbacked No | 4c | 553.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…5a8cbacked No | 9c | 550$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 10c | 546.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa6…3b35backed No | 10c | 539.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…bcb1backed No | 4c | 538.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…fc5fbacked No | 9c | 531.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…6b9ebacked No | 4c | 530.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…5808backed No | 4c | 525$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9230backed No | 2c | 521.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.