World Politics · resolved market
Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4c062740bed86e48b44177aae609c9c76e44cba5318aba240b94066939b672b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,970,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,874,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,970,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 1,310,043$4,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,550.87 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 686,105$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.44 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 571,051$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.12 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64c…96ffbacked Yes | 0c | 553,632$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef3d…e9ecbacked Yes | 0c | 552,640$2,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 1c | 514,822$2,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,816.86 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 365,605$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.84 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 1c | 363,789$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 0c | 266,152$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…e8c5backed Yes | 0c | 206,627$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…8393backed Yes | 0c | 206,352$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 200,458$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.91 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 175,175$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6b…b257backed Yes | 0c | 157,500$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d51…36b3backed Yes | 0c | 128,438$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…3895backed Yes | 1c | 125,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…1a06backed Yes | 0c | 122,681$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 112,157$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.75 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…fec9backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 96,704$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.16 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2607…8b73backed Yes | 0c | 96,033$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…e462backed Yes | 1c | 87,488$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 1c | 80,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 0c | 78,530$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed Yes | 0c | 76,794$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6595…4e23backed Yes | 1c | 75,625$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…a34abacked Yes | 1c | 75,240$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…63a3backed Yes | 1c | 74,989$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…49dfbacked Yes | 1c | 69,086$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 0c | 67,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…2badbacked Yes | 0c | 65,500$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…1532backed Yes | 1c | 62,489$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 62,084$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…a757backed Yes | 0c | 61,500$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c5…a562backed Yes | 1c | 60,575$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8e…6698backed Yes | 1c | 60,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…c255backed Yes | 0c | 58,750$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9b…f00abacked Yes | 0c | 54,250$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…8d76backed Yes | 0c | 53,969$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…6173backed Yes | 0c | 53,560$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275d…72e7backed Yes | 0c | 53,000$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb0…64abbacked Yes | 1c | 52,860$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fb…dbf4backed Yes | 1c | 51,506$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…797abacked Yes | 1c | 51,506$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a71…6cf5backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db6…d45abacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…8400backed Yes | 1c | 45,552$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 1c | 45,474$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.44 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf62…7c6ebacked Yes | 0c | 45,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323d…aa9dbacked Yes | 0c | 43,513$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…9761backed Yes | 1c | 41,229$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…9ee9backed Yes | 1c | 40,618$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17c…dd51backed Yes | 1c | 38,260$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…68b8backed Yes | 0c | 37,800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…a706backed Yes | 0c | 36,803$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7542…2fe3backed Yes | 1c | 35,240$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d92…f9bcbacked Yes | 1c | 35,160$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7520backed Yes | 1c | 35,160$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…6d4cbacked Yes | 1c | 34,337$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe258…415bbacked Yes | 1c | 34,337$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…02fbbacked Yes | 0c | 32,602$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ada…0244backed Yes | 0c | 31,250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe407…1df9backed Yes | 1c | 30,361$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…61e7backed Yes | 0c | 30,350$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fa…e51abacked Yes | 1c | 29,500$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 28,617$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15dd…8b3fbacked Yes | 1c | 27,328$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623d…f270backed Yes | 0c | 25,317$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…a16bbacked Yes | 1c | 25,250$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…be7fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,250$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f2…59e2backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…3dd5backed Yes | 0c | 24,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…7af4backed Yes | 1c | 24,193$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbfd…d836backed Yes | 0c | 23,750$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…5c04backed Yes | 1c | 22,737$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b1…b2e8backed Yes | 1c | 20,761$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf66…0c20backed Yes | 1c | 20,604$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…6e18backed Yes | 0c | 20,075$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…de97backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…a08abacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0375…7339backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…b099backed Yes | 1c | 19,830$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…4e3bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,790$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x691e…9b99backed Yes | 1c | 17,302$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931a…dc1bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,169$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…4cc3backed Yes | 1c | 17,169$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 0c | 16,778$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc324…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62f…c1cabacked Yes | 0c | 16,525$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ba…6d87backed Yes | 1c | 16,264$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…0e1fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,708$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…5fc3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b25…141dbacked Yes | 1c | 14,319$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…002cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5cf9backed Yes | 1c | 13,941$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.