World Politics · resolved market
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcce535ee3d3b54b4f67165ccfa0a60195ff155afdc51db66c6d5f7d4af0f29a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,222,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,584,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,222,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 499 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 0c | 1,785,609$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,380.64 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 1,040,058$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,379.86 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf541…74f7backed Yes | 0c | 764,049$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 674,714$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,024.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 598,631$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.9 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 434,999$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 425,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 400,885$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 399,999$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…3b6ebacked Yes | 0c | 333,333$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 183,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 0c | 159,937$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.87 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6595…4e23backed Yes | 0c | 158,750$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf023…19f1backed Yes | 0c | 126,500$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0a…d027backed Yes | 0c | 125,500$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…a34abacked Yes | 0c | 125,500$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…7b1fbacked Yes | 0c | 94,790$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 78,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…5ac7backed Yes | 0c | 60,500$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a8…5eedbacked Yes | 0c | 55,433$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc317…7bd6backed Yes | 0c | 55,155$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb657…4dc4backed Yes | 0c | 52,608$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…592dbacked Yes | 0c | 52,545$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…7375backed Yes | 0c | 51,225$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fc…5a7cbacked Yes | 0c | 50,750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1b…8670backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…efaebacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b7…d465backed Yes | 0c | 49,303$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…f177backed Yes | 0c | 47,333$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…4de8backed Yes | 0c | 46,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…7afdbacked Yes | 0c | 45,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…5cefbacked Yes | 0c | 44,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4511…f18cbacked Yes | 0c | 42,667$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…096bbacked Yes | 0c | 41,667$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…b344backed Yes | 0c | 40,667$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1b…4e28backed Yes | 0c | 39,333$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ad61backed Yes | 0c | 39,333$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb205…7f52backed Yes | 0c | 39,000$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a25…7cccbacked Yes | 0c | 37,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…5b12backed Yes | 0c | 37,403$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9355…bce2backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…b2b5backed Yes | 0c | 37,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…cf7ebacked Yes | 0c | 35,427$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8166…1237backed Yes | 0c | 35,260$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…756abacked Yes | 0c | 34,793$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c6…cbf4backed Yes | 0c | 34,760$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x748c…551cbacked Yes | 0c | 34,760$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x021f…06bbbacked Yes | 0c | 34,500$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92b9…fabebacked Yes | 0c | 33,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…d689backed Yes | 0c | 32,220$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…9b1abacked Yes | 0c | 32,025$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…d884backed Yes | 0c | 27,750$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecf8…e708backed Yes | 0c | 27,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…0e0cbacked Yes | 0c | 27,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…6e48backed Yes | 0c | 26,750$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…64d0backed Yes | 0c | 26,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af7…19d7backed Yes | 0c | 26,370$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1269…ffcfbacked Yes | 0c | 26,250$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…3a4bbacked Yes | 0c | 26,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f1…7dc2backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c1…1ed5backed Yes | 0c | 25,750$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ad…65e9backed Yes | 0c | 25,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff0…2a62backed Yes | 0c | 25,500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 24,259$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 24,257$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…12adbacked Yes | 0c | 24,201$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4853…0365backed Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…be7fbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…a16bbacked Yes | 0c | 23,750$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d32…84bbbacked Yes | 0c | 22,750$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…d04dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…7655backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 21,576$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5b…eceebacked Yes | 0c | 21,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…6e6abacked Yes | 0c | 20,662$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9c…6b0ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…ea1fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…3dd5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…905bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…8c40backed Yes | 0c | 19,950$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d4…dcbabacked Yes | 0c | 19,413$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52b…b350backed Yes | 0c | 19,390$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c50…9bd0backed Yes | 0c | 19,218$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5378…9729backed Yes | 0c | 18,983$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…16aabacked Yes | 0c | 18,634$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…1448backed Yes | 0c | 18,630$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…a1ccbacked Yes | 0c | 18,390$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ba…08c8backed Yes | 0c | 18,333$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…ecf8backed Yes | 0c | 18,147$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…be57backed Yes | 0c | 17,697$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…5318backed Yes | 0c | 17,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 0c | 17,215$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…0828backed Yes | 0c | 17,050$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc159…27f7backed Yes | 0c | 16,750$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1334…8d5abacked Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…42d3backed Yes | 0c | 15,958$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.