World Politics · resolved market
Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac2af4b0dd00903861de0d99be87c71c9f45824e002fef274677c9f3fd4051c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,989,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,533,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,989,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 1,436,283$4,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,308.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 930,737$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.47 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 0c | 699,963$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.93 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 635,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,580 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 540,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 475,557$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.03 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 400,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes | 0c | 368,387$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 194,943$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.83 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 181,251$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 161,783$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.62 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24f2…7d5ebacked Yes | 0c | 111,333$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…0590backed Yes | 0c | 63,333$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x838b…4112backed Yes | 0c | 61,720$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…9840backed Yes | 0c | 59,333$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581e…99fdbacked Yes | 0c | 58,750$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc424…8399backed Yes | 0c | 57,333$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a1…d573backed Yes | 0c | 55,524$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…41adbacked Yes | 0c | 55,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…3a9fbacked Yes | 0c | 54,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…e5e4backed Yes | 0c | 53,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…d0dabacked Yes | 0c | 52,667$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bc…c632backed Yes | 0c | 52,333$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa411…c627backed Yes | 0c | 51,515$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…b3f5backed Yes | 0c | 50,333$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24b…19a2backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…0abbbacked Yes | 0c | 47,333$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d88…b344backed Yes | 0c | 46,667$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…44aebacked Yes | 0c | 46,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…c326backed Yes | 0c | 45,160$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…4de8backed Yes | 0c | 44,667$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…17cfbacked Yes | 0c | 44,333$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…59a5backed Yes | 0c | 44,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 43,084$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9043…63b3backed Yes | 0c | 42,293$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffe…a46fbacked Yes | 0c | 40,667$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…b8afbacked Yes | 0c | 40,570$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddda…7cc5backed Yes | 0c | 40,333$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14bc…362ebacked Yes | 0c | 40,333$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…2ea4backed Yes | 0c | 38,667$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…f3dbbacked Yes | 0c | 38,667$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…b3f8backed Yes | 0c | 37,687$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf94…8387backed Yes | 0c | 36,947$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3026…607bbacked Yes | 0c | 36,667$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…e6a5backed Yes | 0c | 36,443$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8336…7edcbacked Yes | 0c | 36,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa418…f590backed Yes | 0c | 36,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1431…40fcbacked Yes | 0c | 36,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2d…cb97backed Yes | 0c | 36,000$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9e…bcaabacked Yes | 0c | 35,667$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…e0a5backed Yes | 0c | 35,093$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff0…f177backed Yes | 0c | 34,947$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…8e92backed Yes | 0c | 34,793$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…a6b5backed Yes | 0c | 34,560$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…3116backed Yes | 0c | 34,427$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c50…9bd0backed Yes | 0c | 34,375$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…dd4abacked Yes | 0c | 34,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…03d5backed Yes | 0c | 33,993$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…8229backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d26…27cfbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f4…f5d8backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbc…231dbacked Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…5471backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…af91backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…4ef2backed Yes | 0c | 27,533$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5110…3c46backed Yes | 0c | 26,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030e…178ebacked Yes | 0c | 26,577$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…64d0backed Yes | 0c | 26,103$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1493…583fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,467$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5d…113cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…12adbacked Yes | 0c | 24,137$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…6364backed Yes | 0c | 23,333$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…e67abacked Yes | 0c | 23,333$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…0048backed Yes | 0c | 22,950$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 22,336$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…21a6backed Yes | 0c | 22,113$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e13…13c8backed Yes | 0c | 22,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9a…0238backed Yes | 0c | 21,667$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa8…6be6backed Yes | 0c | 20,630$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…7a57backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…ea1fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…4954backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…dfefbacked Yes | 0c | 19,627$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…16aabacked Yes | 0c | 19,533$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc131…78bebacked Yes | 0c | 19,433$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…f567backed Yes | 0c | 19,363$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7680…f776backed Yes | 0c | 18,880$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0baf…23b7backed Yes | 0c | 18,600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd725…f622backed Yes | 0c | 18,245$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…7ef4backed Yes | 0c | 17,632$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…eab5backed Yes | 0c | 17,454$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6824…3f13backed Yes | 0c | 16,975$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…1f6dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,830$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…4b67backed Yes | 0c | 16,625$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…7162backed Yes | 0c | 16,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.