TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,989,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,533,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,989,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 409 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d48…2852backed Yes0c1,436,283$4,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,308.8550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c930,737$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.473614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c699,963$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.93120%0 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c635,000$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,58015230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c540,000$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1705132.9%15 W · 498 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+88.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1857…c0cebacked Yes0c475,557$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.03150%0 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c400,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200380%0 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d0b…4f4dbacked Yes0c368,387$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.1950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes0c194,943$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.83150%0 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bac…02b1backed Yes0c181,251$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.8670%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes0c161,783$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.623828.9%11 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24f2…7d5ebacked Yes0c111,333$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d7…1935backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-63.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe70d…cb59backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…0590backed Yes0c63,333$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x838b…4112backed Yes0c61,720$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5e…9840backed Yes0c59,333$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581e…99fdbacked Yes0c58,750$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc424…8399backed Yes0c57,333$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19a1…d573backed Yes0c55,524$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x743d…41adbacked Yes0c55,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1c8…3a9fbacked Yes0c54,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf34…e5e4backed Yes0c53,333$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f4…d0dabacked Yes0c52,667$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bc…c632backed Yes0c52,333$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa411…c627backed Yes0c51,515$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9020…b3f5backed Yes0c50,333$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa24b…19a2backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531b…0abbbacked Yes0c47,333$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d88…b344backed Yes0c46,667$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9547…44aebacked Yes0c46,000$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e70…c326backed Yes0c45,160$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe2…4de8backed Yes0c44,667$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa03…17cfbacked Yes0c44,333$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48f…59a5backed Yes0c44,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes0c43,084$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9043…63b3backed Yes0c42,293$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffe…a46fbacked Yes0c40,667$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e0…b8afbacked Yes0c40,570$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddda…7cc5backed Yes0c40,333$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14bc…362ebacked Yes0c40,333$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c40,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd744…2ea4backed Yes0c38,667$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2488…f3dbbacked Yes0c38,667$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…b3f8backed Yes0c37,687$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf94…8387backed Yes0c36,947$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3026…607bbacked Yes0c36,667$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf756…e6a5backed Yes0c36,443$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8336…7edcbacked Yes0c36,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa418…f590backed Yes0c36,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1431…40fcbacked Yes0c36,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2d…cb97backed Yes0c36,000$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9e…bcaabacked Yes0c35,667$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9780…e0a5backed Yes0c35,093$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff0…f177backed Yes0c34,947$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8048…8e92backed Yes0c34,793$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.3820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bc7…a6b5backed Yes0c34,560$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.6820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…3116backed Yes0c34,427$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c50…9bd0backed Yes0c34,375$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22eb…dd4abacked Yes0c34,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9534…03d5backed Yes0c33,993$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb00…8229backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d26…27cfbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6f4…f5d8backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dbc…231dbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b8…5471backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…af91backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%0 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…4ef2backed Yes0c27,533$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5110…3c46backed Yes0c26,667$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030e…178ebacked Yes0c26,577$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12a1…64d0backed Yes0c26,103$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1493…583fbacked Yes0c25,467$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf5d…113cbacked Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4589…12adbacked Yes0c24,137$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e4…6364backed Yes0c23,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe881…e67abacked Yes0c23,333$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbff7…0048backed Yes0c22,950$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c22,336$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.154521.1%5 W · 447 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+156.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20b8…21a6backed Yes0c22,113$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes0c22,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410734.6%37 W · 70 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e13…13c8backed Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a9a…0238backed Yes0c21,667$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa8…6be6backed Yes0c20,630$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…7a57backed Yes0c20,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3150…ea1fbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe2…4954backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b3…dfefbacked Yes0c19,627$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6382…16aabacked Yes0c19,533$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc131…78bebacked Yes0c19,433$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57f…f567backed Yes0c19,363$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7680…f776backed Yes0c18,880$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0baf…23b7backed Yes0c18,600$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd725…f622backed Yes0c18,245$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c23…7ef4backed Yes0c17,632$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab7a…eab5backed Yes0c17,454$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6824…3f13backed Yes0c16,975$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fd…1f6dbacked Yes0c16,830$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x536d…4b67backed Yes0c16,625$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6376…7162backed Yes0c16,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.