World Politics · resolved market
Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9203212d0b10814e22dc330443cbdf57c5cb9401e2cc1befd8d22aea679a7d87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,221,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,169,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,221,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked Yes | 0c | 2,747,414$5,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,494.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 1,002,047$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.11 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 806,768$2,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.39 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 733,929$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,902.86 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…3a25backed Yes | 0c | 650,126$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.38 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…02b1backed Yes | 0c | 499,999$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 459,333$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.33 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 450,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8036…5769backed Yes | 0c | 450,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 334,940$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.82 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…e32abacked Yes | 0c | 243,899$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 115,405$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.37 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe516…b2b5backed Yes | 1c | 112,614$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…092fbacked Yes | 0c | 111,470$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf66…0c20backed Yes | 1c | 100,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…7b1fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…dcafbacked Yes | 1c | 85,035$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 77,500$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Yes | 0c | 72,432$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…725ebacked Yes | 0c | 68,000$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bd…5489backed Yes | 0c | 65,667$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7f…5c08backed Yes | 0c | 64,333$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…891bbacked Yes | 0c | 60,333$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…429dbacked Yes | 0c | 59,667$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8558…5111backed Yes | 0c | 57,333$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…5fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 56,794$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6165…bc94backed Yes | 0c | 56,667$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…e34fbacked Yes | 0c | 56,250$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bb…8f58backed Yes | 0c | 55,227$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…d8b8backed Yes | 0c | 54,333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc9…bbbabacked Yes | 0c | 54,333$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9815…87a4backed Yes | 0c | 54,310$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…b58cbacked Yes | 0c | 54,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…6e14backed Yes | 0c | 53,333$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b4…b3acbacked Yes | 0c | 51,900$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…19d5backed Yes | 1c | 51,429$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…60c7backed Yes | 0c | 50,067$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…84febacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…70b0backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 49,800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c5…f858backed Yes | 0c | 49,680$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…2402backed Yes | 0c | 49,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00bf…147dbacked Yes | 0c | 48,990$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f19…4445backed Yes | 1c | 48,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x935f…8388backed Yes | 0c | 43,333$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfafa…e888backed Yes | 0c | 41,667$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ac5ebacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…6952backed Yes | 0c | 39,878$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2b…d89bbacked Yes | 1c | 39,381$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd2…01c8backed Yes | 0c | 37,625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…dfe1backed Yes | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc281…d884backed Yes | 0c | 33,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…dd21backed Yes | 0c | 31,830$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce6…1a06backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd003…94d5backed Yes | 1c | 29,467$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…b8d0backed Yes | 0c | 29,076$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85a4…896cbacked Yes | 0c | 28,307$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…6e18backed Yes | 0c | 28,125$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 0c | 27,676$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6b…b257backed Yes | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f7…9982backed Yes | 0c | 26,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…546ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,750$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…baefbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…04f2backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacb…6f4ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…13d0backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…352bbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1e…4560backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x574d…eb8cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d71…e41abacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…0605backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…b573backed Yes | 1c | 24,800$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…fe30backed Yes | 0c | 24,750$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x716a…3a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 24,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf865…d8b0backed Yes | 0c | 23,673$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…4b67backed Yes | 0c | 22,173$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…ea1fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…1b70backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…00b5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…0e1fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,758$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb6…a072backed Yes | 0c | 19,574$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…cc58backed Yes | 1c | 19,260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…1c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,753$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8172…85aebacked Yes | 0c | 17,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ada…0244backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed40…0bc4backed Yes | 0c | 16,654$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…12adbacked Yes | 0c | 16,363$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7758…2641backed Yes | 0c | 16,250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…d8d5backed Yes | 0c | 16,250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…f94fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…d1a9backed Yes | 0c | 15,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadad…5354backed Yes | 0c | 15,063$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…ebdfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,063$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eeb…39c1backed Yes | 0c | 15,033$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…8122backed Yes | 1c | 14,784$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grünen win the most seats in the next German election?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will BSW win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the next German election?No won
- Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?Yes won
- Will another party win the most seats in the next German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.