TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$247,673
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,625

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $247,673 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4a9c…3183backed Yes0c32,177$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba1…1171backed Yes23c26,271$6,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,101.11216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8628…27c2backed Yes20c11,494$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,353.031330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c0e…434ebacked Yes13c8,356$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes17c5,890$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$984.025824.1%14 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes11c4,404$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+46.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4338…61e6backed Yes41c4,019$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.771915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc17…289abacked Yes19c3,450$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.153721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-29.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3313…55b8backed Yes0c3,335$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6324…0166backed Yes2c3,294$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c3,201$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.2434129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f36…f6bebacked Yes43c3,152$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.31030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e41…f050backed Yes15c3,146$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-63.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3513…33f6backed Yes13c3,121$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd28e…2f42backed Yes17c3,031$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa063…7248backed Yes20c2,947$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-58.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes10c2,619$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.311650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+64%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes1c1,841$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.11816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed Yes18c1,795$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.83336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes12c1,648$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f1e…e41ebacked Yes9c1,513$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+49.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e9…67c3backed Yes25c1,416$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.142025%5 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedaa…2f33backed Yes22c1,344$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes4c1,336$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.862544%11 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21da…baf5backed No78c1,139$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No77c1,129$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…5fadbacked Yes1c1,100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d1b…39b9backed No61c1,022$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.34450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a6…3133backed Yes19c1,018$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.492948.3%14 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x26dc…6edcbacked Yes28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No72c1,000$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2812365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.4wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x579c…d88dbacked Yes11c943.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf84…703cbacked Yes25c898.2$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.55616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-71.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes18c767.28$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.114936.7%18 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+33.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes24c669.94$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.843435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick26cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9513…a6a2backed Yes18c638.23$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.461827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd316…c8cfbacked Yes34c629.79$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…c114backed Yes19c582.89$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+53.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4b…f229backed Yes33c526.32$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1751241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x904a…6232backed Yes19c504.8$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.961435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+98.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4094…2ec9backed Yes8c499.76$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddd8…624bbacked Yes21c478$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.381118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e5…6315backed Yes13c457.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+122.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes23c457$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.013225%8 W · 24 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd975…c6d6backed Yes15c450$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662528%7 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95a3…046ebacked No11c388.71$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.90per pick10cpaid+904%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7826…191fbacked Yes27c371.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001540%6 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+137.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x03ba…ccb5backed Yes29c353.57$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+87%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes9c344.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.136432.8%21 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc385…5039backed Yes7c344$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7e…8ed5backed Yes16c319.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa47e…5d1ebacked Yes8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+25.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a08…0db2backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20210%0 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1742…2084backed Yes25c278.88$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+62%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Yes10c260$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.94027.5%11 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa145…49e6backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc195…5f72backed Yes21c243.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502045%9 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7722…ee4bbacked Yes24c212.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb8d8…66a7backed Yes14c202.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.362737%10 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd80…a8edbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+143.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked Yes25c200$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504139%16 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c4…aad3backed Yes19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid+100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes21c189.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb970…5866backed Yes14c187.5$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9e…ec5fbacked Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick14cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b91…e343backed Yes15c167$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-66.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ec…2d07backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.711323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+39.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+54%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a06…41c9backed Yes13c115.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2206…362fbacked Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x095f…0a7bbacked Yes35c103.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92a3…4a7dbacked No75c100.15$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.151758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9bb…4774backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+43.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff2b…0c88backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+48.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07fe…7ddebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0a…668ebacked Yes27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2947…ca18backed Yes22c91.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1943…efd7backed Yes16c84.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98e7…0a64backed Yes25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201625%4 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1ab…cf6bbacked Yes25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20fa…2d9cbacked Yes17c64.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503d…52d9backed No77c61.95$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe914…1707backed Yes24c61.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.