Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5edae953388817d1a949fedf1da005a86bc17aa2158a1af254902f06c9d2f5d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $350,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fec…2b67backed No | 18c | 29,905$5,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,414.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 80c | 18,349$14,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,695.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 1c | 17,389$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 18c | 17,103$3,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.12 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 8c | 11,301$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.53 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 25c | 9,554$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397.81 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5d…0734backed Yes | 78c | 6,872$5,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 80c | 5,065$4,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 13c | 3,778$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,278.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…cf95backed Yes | 80c | 2,923$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.68 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…4926backed Yes | 21c | 2,890$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 7c | 2,593$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 63c | 2,559$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.42 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 77c | 2,444$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.46 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0c…cfc9backed Yes | 35c | 2,229$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,454.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 10c | 1,866$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 9c | 1,734$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.66 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 76c | 1,540$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904a…6232backed Yes | 11c | 1,526$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…a0d0backed Yes | 80c | 1,273$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed No | 7c | 1,064$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,004$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.43 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…cd9cbacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed Yes | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 10c | 920$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +917.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 8c | 696.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 7c | 693.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…b16fbacked Yes | 78c | 646.63$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144a…e06ebacked Yes | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca2…4155backed Yes | 70c | 563.9$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 79c | 558.7$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 11c | 544$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.28 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 24c | 536.72$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.75 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…22bcbacked Yes | 76c | 525.66$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed Yes | 8c | 524.1$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.65 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…7257backed Yes | 35c | 505$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…4a7dbacked Yes | 17c | 500$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 484.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.49 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…c5e4backed Yes | 75c | 466.35$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x092d…3044backed Yes | 80c | 409.94$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc786…d82ebacked Yes | 78c | 408.9$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 19c | 262.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…aad3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…7abdbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…3683backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…f5fabacked Yes | 71c | 140.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc891…c75ebacked Yes | 11c | 134.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…ceadbacked Yes | 80c | 126.09$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…0c88backed Yes | 13c | 100.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…ffdcbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x548d…522dbacked Yes | 79c | 91.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f6…58d6backed Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 76c | 65.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…e606backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…1236backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 66c | 49.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…bca3backed Yes | 77c | 46.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b4afbacked Yes | 80c | 45.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 52c | 32.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6920…b052backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108e…1499backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…04d3backed Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe03…73a9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?this page
- Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 200 and 204 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 205 and 209 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 210 and 214 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.