Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Republicans have between 205 and 209 seats in House after election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58d6753ede28bce4ac0fddf866f2640148a94268fc5035d2185c4ce2341cbcca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 6c | 4,965$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.06 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +300.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 9c | 2,516$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 20c | 2,044$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.8 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…3683backed Yes | 8c | 1,960$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,683$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.38 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…39d4backed Yes | 8c | 1,270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 779.93$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6324…0166backed Yes | 4c | 759.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 18c | 565$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 550$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 20c | 499$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 11c | 444$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa092…fb1cbacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 5c | 272.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 12c | 244$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55bf…fc75backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 14c | 148$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…63b8backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 130.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…0db2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Republicans have between 205 and 209 seats in House after election?this page
- Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 200 and 204 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 210 and 214 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 215 and 219 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have between 220 and 224 seats in House after election?Yes won
- Will Republicans have between 225 and 229 seats in House after election?No won
- Will Republicans have fewer than 200 seats in House after election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.